Tuesday, March 11, 2014

FCPO: The Prophecy Came True ? 11th March 2014

Tuesday, 11th March 2014. Palm oil futures surge to all time high since Sept 2013 to 2,910 level. The next question would be, would the psychological 3,000 level hold ? Other news to follow.

"- U.S. stocks recovered most of their losses but still finished Monday generally lower as weak data from China reignited worries about a global economic slowdown.

The S&P 500 SPX -0.05%  retreated from its record closing level and ended the day less than a point lower at 1,877.18. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -0.21%  fell more than 100 points at one point Monday but closed 34.04 points, or 0.2%, lower at 16,418.68. The Nasdaq Composite COMP -0.04%  closed down 1.77 points at 4,334.45."
"-Shanghai and Hong Kong led Asian stocks markets lower on Monday, as weak trade data from China weighed on regional sentiment, while shares in Malaysia Airlines sank after one of its planes went missing over the weekend. Chinese exports sank 18.1% from a year earlier in February, much lower than the 5% increase that was expected by economists, and following a healthy 10.6% expansion in January. Although the sharp drop raised concerns over Asia’s largest economy, distortions due to the long Lunar New Year holidays could have contributed to the surprise fall. In China, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index lost 1.6% while the Shanghai Composite in mainland China was 1.7% lower. Elsewhere in Asia, the impact was felt most in Australia--a country with strong trade ties with China. In Sydney, the S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.8%. Mining stocks were badly hit, with Rio Tinto losing 5% and BHP Billiton 3.5% lower."
"- Oil futures dropped Monday, with investors facing downbeat Chinese trade data that weighed on prospects for energy demand. Crude for April delivery CLJ4 -0.08% fell $1.30, or 1.3%, to $101.28 a barrel. Oil futures on Friday had closed 1% higher.

FCPO- Welcoming RM3,000 level per ton

The benchmark May closed at record high yesterday, bringing the price closer to 3,000 level. Many would question those fundamental analyst when they said palm oil could reach certain level, or certain range giving into a large time frame. It is not that impossible to imagine and project such call from a fundamental basis but most of the trader would abandon these analysis because it is too damn long time frame. Anyone of you can make an price projection identical to those whose speak in on the stage or in the palm oil convention based on seasonal and fundamental approach but how many of you have deep pockets when your positions are burning money against the market. Most of retail trader or individual trader tend to use a very long term projection for price and tend to stick at it just because it is still fundamentally correct. Well, I have news for you, market is always chaotic and leave no reason for it to move. It can move down substantially until you puke even in a fundamentally Bullish market and vice versa. But nonetheless, you will need to know what the fundamental is going to be like in the future because you do not want to go against it in the long run. That is what being able to balance out fundamental and technical analysis all together on deriving an informed decision to trade in any market. Back to the market outlook, there is no sign of swift market pull back yet based on daily chart, the Bulls are still calling the shot even though most of the oscillator reading are showing overbought level. For longer term traders, you should be focusing on staying Long when the market pullback to certain pivot support level. While for intraday trader, be extra cautious when you are Shorting to make some quick buck, swift respond for exit position is the key to stay alive day in day out.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2939
R1= 2920
S1= 2871
S2= 2841
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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