Tuesday, February 4, 2014

The Market Is Open Back !!!! 4th Feb 2014

Tuesday, 4th Feb 2014. Woaaah time flies when you are having fun, the month now is February and you better believe it, holiday is over. Looking back at the stock index and commodities, things are not much to cheer about. Other news to follow.

"- The U.S. stock market closed with sharp losses on Monday, after a much weaker-than-expected reading on manufacturing data as well as concerns over a slowdown in China, triggered the worst selloff in several months. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day with the steepest decline since June 20. The S&P 500 index SPX -2.28%  closed down 40.70 points, or 2.3%, at 1,741.89, falling below the key level resistance level of 1,775. Market technicians watch this level closely, as closing below it would trigger heavy selling by algorithmic programs, which comprise about 40% of the market. The Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA -2.08%  dropped 326.05 points, or 2.1%, to 15,372.80, falling below its 200-day moving average. The drop is the seventh triple-digit decline this year. The Nasdaq Composite COMP -2.61% ended the day 106.92 points."

"-Tokyo shares fell while Australia’s market was flat in early Monday trading as investors’ apathy during the Lunar New Year holiday kept trading subdued.

The benchmark Nikkei Stock Average was down 1.2% in morning trading, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was flat at 5192.2."
"-New York-traded oil and natural-gas futures lost ground in electronic trade Monday, with a slightly firmer U.S. dollar among the factors weighing on the contracts. Benchmark U.S. crude oil for March delivery CLH4 +0.17% fell 21 cents, or 0.2%, to $97.28 a barrel, extending a 0.8% retreat Friday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for March UK:LCOH4 +0.02% , however, was little changed, adding 2 cents to trade at $106.42 a barrel. March natural gas NGH14 +2.55%extended its sharp downward trend, losing 11 cents, or 2.3%, to $4.83 per million British thermal units, with the loss coming on top of a 1.4% drop Friday."

"-Malaysia January Palm Oil Exports Fell 11% on Month -Intertek
MALAYSIA JAN. PALM OIL EXPORTS 1,269,266 (-10.84) TONS: SGS"


FCPO- Not Much Movement On Soy Oil, But Watch Out For Lower Opening

Both local stock index and commodities futures is heading down due to global slow down. Federal reserve taper and budget cut down on U.S asset / bond buying programme would spur Dollar to rise and dampen price recovery for both stock market and commodities. But not all price in the market are down, somehow supply and demand still play crucial part to determine long term price equilibrium. Back to commodities futures, the benchmark April manage to inch up last Thursday to 2,559 before the market shut for long holiday. Resuming on today session, we are expecting slightly lower opening due to weaker export and diminishing price recovery in Soy oil. Malaysia Jan vs Dec palm oil export dropped about 10%~11%, a sign of sluggish price action is expected this week. No good news on the external side, what about technical side ? Believe it or not, the daily chart on benchmark April suggest that there is likely further recovery based on previous Bullish engulfing candle on Thursday closed. But one thing to compromise here would be, there is only half day trading session on previous Thursday and that does not tell the whole story or digest what has happen when the shut for holiday. Looking at bigger picture, there is another lower high formed on daily chart, not a good sign for long term recovery. Lower high is an early indication that warn impending weakness, and if it happen on daily chart, it would mean substantial downside on longer term time frame. There is no magic show to tell here, market would open lower due to recent news or price action on rival product even its longer term chart suggest it is going up.

Daily Pivot Point
R2=2589
R1=2576
S1=2541
S2=2519
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

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