Thursday, February 13, 2014

FCPO: Rallies On Its Way, When Would It Stop ?

Thursday, 13th Feb 2014. Palm oil futures rose on positive cue so far as some would wonder is this rally is for real long term ?  Other news to follow.

"- U.S. stocks ended Wednesday generally lower as investors paused after the largest four-consecutive session rally in more than a year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -0.19%gave up opening gains and closed down 30.83 points, or 0.2% at 15,963.94. The S&P 500SPX -0.03% closed less than a point lower at 1,819.26, after trading sideways for the most of the session. The Nasdaq CompositeCOMP +0.24% defied the general trend and finished the day 10.24 points, or 0.2%, higher at 4,201.29. After Tuesday's rally, the tech-heavy index turned positive for 2014 and is now up 0.6% so far this year."

"-Asian markets moved higher on Wednesday after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen suggested that there would be no major change in the central bank’s policy, while stronger-than-expected trade data pushed Hong Kong higher. The impact of the data was most evident in Hong Kong, where the Hang Seng Index was up 0.7% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 0.9%. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite was down 0.3% as the market fell back after gaining 2.9% over the last two sessions."

"- Oil futures closed back $100-a-barrel level on Wednesday, after Chinese data showed record oil imports for January and key oil producers raised their forecast on global demand growth for the year, but a bigger-than-expected rise in crude supplies kept price gains in check. March crude oil CLH4 -0.17%  rose 43 cents, or 0.4%, to settle at $100.37 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, erasing the contract’s 12-cent pullback Tuesday. 

FCPO- Sustainable Price Growth ? 

That is the question most likely asked by those who are taking long term positions in the commodities market. Would this or any of the other rallies going to stay for real ? No one knows the answer for that frankly. But what we can do here is apply the risk management if things would reverse and gone wrong, that would be the best outcome for any traders out there. Control what we could control, losses and profit are meant to be a benchmark figures and we can control that. Stop wondering where is the price is heading next, re-act to it will brings you better trading performance over time. Technically, we are looking at five weeks high and there is still no sign for the rallies to stop, not yet. The market might open slightly lower today, but that would not last long as traders will likely support price from falling. Palm oil stocks and Soy oil outlook is getting better due to weather concern. Until we see the benchmark contract hit six weeks high at 2,670, all sail is pointing towards North. For bigger picture, the benchmark month is still trapped within a huge range within 2,485~2,692 level. A "super" upside cycle is likely to happen if the benchmark month breach above twelve weeks high at 2,692 level, which would took about two to six weeks if the external factors continue to favor us. For today, pivot support for April contract is located around  2,616 while resistance is pegged at 2,653.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2653
R1= 2643
S1= 2616
S2= 2599
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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