Tuesday, January 21, 2014

FCPO: Strong Rally, Due To Weak Ringgit ?

Tuesday, 21th Jan 2014. Palm oil futures inches up yesterday despite lower closing on the Soy oil market. CME was closed for trading yesterday 20th Jan 2014, giving way to Martin Luther King holiday and will resume their normal trading session on today. Other news to follow.

" U.S. stocks closed generally lower on Friday as disappointing results from Intel Corp. and General Electric Co. weighed on sentiment. But a run in tech stocks, and a Friday lift in financials, helped two benchmarks to weekly gains. The S&P 500 SPX -0.39%   closed 7.19 points, or 0.4% lower at 1,838.70 and lost 0.2% over the week, with those losses limited by a 1.4% weekly rally in tech stocks. The Nasdaq Composite COMP -0.50%   closed down 21.11 points, or 0.5%, to 4,197.58 but rose 0.5% higher over the week. The technology-heavy index is the only one of the three with year-to-date gains."


"-Hong Kong stocks dropped at the start of trading on Friday, as mainland banks were under pressure on shadow banking worries. The Hang Seng Index HK:HSI -0.88% edged down 0.3% at 22,906.35. Mainland banks declined after Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the world's largest bank by assets, reportedly refused to "assume main responsibility" to bail out investors in a 3 billion yuan ($500 million) investment product that it helped distribute."
"-Oil futures dropped Monday after a slowdown in Chinese industrial output growth raised concerns about global demand for crude. February crude oil CLG4 -0.10%   fell 65 cents, or 0.7%, to $93.72 a barrel in electronic trading. Prices on Friday rose 41 cents, or 0.4%, to close at $94.37 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday, a energy futures trading paused at 1:15 p.m. Eastern Time, and will reopen at 6 p.m. Eastern."

FCPO- Its Rally Time !! 

Palm oil manage to clock impressive rally due to weaken Ringgit ? At least that is what I heard, you will be bombarded with good news when the price rallied passed significant resistance level such as 2,260 for the benchmark April while bad news when the market does weaken significantly. But in terms of analyzing news and fundamental who am I to kid with ? News or fundamental are both the least criteria to consider while trading or pulling the trigger in the market. At least it was true at my end. I would not know which bloody news to use, what fundamental to deal with. All I know, the fastest indicator for me to able to re-act would be price and time. Once the price break certain level with certain volume spike, it's game time. No question about it, no "what if", "should have" or "could have" that kind of bull sh*&t running around. It's either I make certain profit by risking certain percentage of my equity or lose that certain percentage of that equity and move on. Nothing in between that should get in your way for you to pull the trigger, not "I cannot trade because I have 5 consecutive losses", or "I have to be extra cautious because I have loss about 25% of my equity." You, not your wife, your sifu or guru, you, should know better your risk of ruin, maximum tolerance of the trading style you use, the edge and weakness of your system, not anyone else. Back to the overall outlook of the market, April contract is likely to continue rally judging from the better than expected recovery that breach above at least one weak high yesterday. For today, pivot support for April is located around 2,564 while resistance is pegged at 2,600. We should expect medium term palm oil futures perspective to change from Bearish to Bullish if the April contract manage to pass above 2,600 today.

Daily Pivot Point
R2=2600
R1= 2590
S1= 2564
S2= 2548
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

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