Thursday, October 10, 2013

New High, Storm Is Coming 10th Oct 2013

Thursday, 10th Oct 2013. The benchmark Dec contract for FCPO is continuously heading to new high for the past two sessions due to slower anticipated productions. Other news to follow.

"- U.S. stocks ended mostly up on Wednesday, with the Dow industrials and the S&P 500 rebounding after a two-day hit, buoyed by talks to end the government shutdown now in its ninth day and with little more than a week to go before U.S. borrowing authority expires. After a 52-point drop and 76-point advance, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA +0.18%  finished up 26.45 points, or 0.2%, at 14,802.98. The S&P 500 index SPX +0.06%  rose nearly 1 point, or nearly 0.1%, to 1,656.40, with telecommunications the best performing and consumer discretionary the laggard among its 10 major industry sectors."

"-Japan made the biggest turnaround as the dollar pushed back against the yen, with the Nikkei JP:NIK +0.53%  ending up 1% at 14037.84. The Japanese currency USDJPY +0.32%   weakened to 97.34 yen a dollar, compared with ¥96.87 late on Tuesday in New York.

Singapore’s Straits Times Index SG:STI +0.32%   was last up 0.3%, Indonesia’s JSX added 0.4% and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 AU:XJO -0.20%  reversed earlier weakness to post a less than 0.1% gain to 5153.00. Stocks in China were mixed, with the Shanghai CompositeCN:SHCOMP +0.62%  up 0.6% at 2211.77, adding to the strong gains in the previous session, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI -0.63%   dropped 0.6% to 23033.97. The next major economic point for Asia will be Chinese data with trade and inflation numbers over the weekend and early next week. Markets will be looking for more signs of economic recovery."
"-November Soybeans finished down 1 at 1287 3/4, 5 1/4 off the high and 6 1/2 up from the low. January Soybeans closed down 3 3/4 at 1284. This was 6 up from the low and 4 3/4 off the high.
December Soymeal closed down 3.2 at 411.7. This was 1.5 up from the low and 2.7 off the high.  December Soybean Oil finished up 0.24 at 40.67, 0.18 off the high and 0.32 up from the low. November soybeans closed slightly lower after choppy and two-sided trade. The market saw choppy and mostly lower trade early today as further weakness in meal and more talk that harvest will pick-up steam in the days ahead helped to spark more long liquidation selling. Improving weather in South America and the outlook for another record crop for the coming season from Brazil helped to pressure. Brazil's (Conab) official production forecast for 2013/14 soybeans came in at a new record high 87.6-89.7 million tonnes as compared with last year's record of 81.3 million tonnes. The USDA September forecast was 88 million. November soybeans gained on January and closed at +3 3/4 premium as the market is encouraging producers to sell soybeans right out of the field to help fill the domestic and export pipeline. December meal closed down $3.20 on the day and pushed to the lowest level since October 2nd and December oil closed 24 higher on the day and pushed up to the highest level since October 1st. Palm futures were up to the highest level since September 10th. The soybean cash basis tone in the Midwest was firm."

FCPO- Break Out And Time To Go Up !!


Did I mentioned storm is coming from the previous post ? Sure I did, and the market did it with breaking above weekly high above 2,335 level. Palm oil futures manage to break out above at least one week high around 2,335 last Tuesday this week. The break out was somewhat anticipated when Soy oil manage to recover steadily above 40.00 cents per pound two sessions ago. Traders should focus mostly on Long when the market does make some correction from here as this break out above the weekly resistance level might last at least for medium term or 3~5 sessions. In another words, what you have now is a medium term uptrend that could bring about 100~200 points recovery from 2,264 level. Technically, higher high and more higher lows are now formed on hourly chart, signifying further price recovery is likely for this week. The next psychological resistance will be placed at 2,400 level for now. Judging from current Bullish price action, the Dec contract should not have any issue breaking above this level as there is no sign for the Bulls to stop charging for the moment. On the external / fundamental side, recent palm oil futures that hit four weeks high is linked with slower pace on production for the 2013 final quarter and also some help from Soy oil recovery as well. For today, pivot support for the Dec contract is located around 2,355 while resistance is pegged at 2,384.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2384
R1= 2376
S1= 2355
S2= 2342
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

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