Thursday, October 3, 2013

Choppy, Choppy, Choppy Price Action 3th Oct 2013

Thursday, 3th Oct 2013. Palm oil futures darn choppy market keeps the medium term trader in guessing game. Other news to follow.

"-U.S. stocks closed lower Wednesday, paring losses during the trading session as investors looked for a possible thaw in negotiations over the government shutdown after a private-sector jobs report came out weaker than expected. The S&P 500 index SPX -0.07% declined 1.13 points, or 0.1%, to finish at 1,693.87, with telecom, health care, and industrials as the worst performing sectors. The index had been down nearly 15 points earlier in the session. The Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA -0.39% , which at one point was off by 147 points intraday, closed down 58.56 points, or 0.4%, at 15,133.14.  The Nasdaq Composite COMP -0.08% , which at one point had ventured briefly into positive territory, finished the day down 2.96 points, or l0.1%, at 3,815.02. Earlier in the session, the Nasdaq had been down nearly 30 points."

"- Oil futures closed above $104 a barrel Wednesday, rebounding from a three-session decline, after a report that construction of the southern leg of TransCanada’s Keystone pipeline will be completed this month, potentially alleviating a glut of oil at nation’s delivery hub. Oil also found support from bets that weaker-than-expected growth in U.S. private-sector jobs will prompt the Federal Reserve to delay a potential pullback in its monetary-stimulus program. And traders digested weekly data that showed a climb in U.S. crude and gasoline supplies along with a decline in distillate supplies. Crude oil for November delivery CLX3 -0.38%  jumped $2.06, or 2%, to settle at $104.10 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It tapped an intraday high of $104.23 Wednesday, after tallying a three-session loss of about 1%."

"-November Soybeans finished up 5 3/4 at 1273 3/4, 8 1/4 off the high and 10 up from the low. January Soybeans closed up 5 3/4 at 1275 3/4. This was 9 3/4 up from the low and 7 3/4 off the high. December Soymeal closed up 8.4 at 411.7. This was 10.0 up from the low and 0.9 off the high. December Soybean Oil finished down 0.89 at 39.38, 0.95 off the high and 0.18 up from the low. November soybeans closed slightly higher on the day but saw choppy to lower trade for much of the day after posting highs for the day near the pit opening. Solid gains in meal were offset by weakness in oil and some long liquidation selling. The market was just a few cents higher on the day ahead of the pit opening but a turn up in wheat and gold plus talk of the short-term oversold condition of the market helped to support a rally to 1282 which filled the gap from yesterday. News that the EU Commission has submitted a final proposal for anti-dumping duties against imports of bio-diesel from Argentina and Indonesia helped drive rapeseed sharply higher on the day in Europe and this may have helped provide some support. Firm meal basis in South America helped to support the rally. A drop in the US dollar and a jump in energy prices added to the positive tone. More talk of better than expected yields in the US and fears that fund traders will continue to liquidate long positions in the days ahead helped to limit the advance. Meal surged higher on a lack of deliveries, talk of increased demand for US meal to Europe and ideas that Argentina crush could remain slow. The turn up in meal, weakness in palm oil and talk of a record Canadian canola crop helped to drive December oil down more than 100 points on the day. December oil is down as much as 7.4% in just four trading sessions. If the USDA reports export sales tomorrow (this would only happen if government shut-down resolved today), traders see weekly sales for soybeans near 950,000 tonnes as compared with just 233,900 tonnes necessary each week to reach the USDA projection for the year."

FCPO- C'mon Move Already !!

The benchmark Dec is having tough time deciding where is the next course of direction for the moment. Palm oil futures is moving within the 2,334 to 2,278 range since Monday this week, this should bring so much pain for those medium term trader to turn their positions few times within these price range. Back to the market outlook, fundamentally productions and stockpiles will be the main headlines to curb price from rising and sluggish export would add up to the Bearish momentum. Palm oil rival product, Soy oil is trading lower and lower each day due to better than expected yields on the end of the year and foreign fund traders who were liquidation of Long positions. The benchmark Dec went down about RM18 to 2,312 on yesterday closing, volume were traded higher to 21,720 lots. Technically on long term, market is still moving back to Bearish note when the Dec contract went down to 2,312 from 2,334 level. The inability for the market to continue rally when it hit two weeks high at 2,334 showed that most Buyers are not ready to commit Buying above this level. But for medium term, the benchmark Dec continue to create signs of recovery such as creating higher low and higher high candle formations starting from previous Monday. For today, pivot support for the Dec contract is located around 2,298 followed by 2,285 while resistance is pegged at 2,329.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2347
R1= 2329
S1= 2298
S2= 2285
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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