Tuesday, September 3, 2013

Long Term Support Trend Line Still Hold Well 3rd Sept 2013

Tuesday, 3rd Sept 2013. Palm oil futures still running on green lane amid continuous positive news from the export data this week. Other news to follow.

"- U.S. stock futures rose sharply on Monday, tracking most Asianand European stocks higher after a round of upbeat PMI readings from China and Europe. Both the official and HSBC's manufacturing PMIs for China showed an improvement in August, while the PMI readings for Germany, the combined euro zone and the U.K. all rose for the month. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJU3 +0.74% jumped 100 points, or 0.7%, to 14,895. Those for the S&P 500 index SPU3 +0.96% added 13.90 points, or 0.9%, to 1,645.20, while futures for the Nasdaq 100 index NDU3 +1.16% picked up 30.75 points, or 1%, to 3,104.25. Regular U.S. markets were closed for trading on Monday for the Labor Day holiday. Both goldand oil prices were on the decline."

"- Hong Kong stocks jumped to lead most Asian equity markets higher Monday after manufacturing data on China signaled an improvement in the world’s second-largest economy.

The benchmark Hang Seng Index HK:HSI +1.22%  ended 2% higher to clinch a third straight trading day of gains, Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average JP:NIK +2.64%  rose 1.4% and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 AU:XJO +0.15% added 1%. China’s Shanghai Composite CN:SHCOMP +0.66% itself ended flat after moving in both directions, while South Korea’s Kospi KR:SEU +0.52% dropped 0.1% at the end of a choppy session."

"- Crude-oil futures fell in electronic trade Monday, extending losses as the threat of large-scale U.S. retaliation against Syria was scaled back, easing supply concerns somewhat. October crude oil CLV3 -0.71% fell 83 cents, or 0.8%, to $106.82 a barrel in thin holiday trade on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Floor trading will resume Tuesday, following Monday’s Labor Day holiday."
"-November Soybeans finished down 11 at 1357 1/2, 13 off the high and 11 1/2 up from the low. January Soybeans closed down 10 at 1354 3/4. This was 11 1/4 up from the low and 11 3/4 off the high. December Soymeal closed down 6.4 at 423.7. This was 1.8 up from the low and 6.3 off the high. December Soybean Oil finished up 0.09 at 44.29, 0.08 off the high and 0.61 up from the low. The soybean market brushed aside the lack of rainfall and high heat today, which has likely taken a toll on crops, and traded lower for most of the session. Funds are long the market and after extensive gains in the last two weeks, traders are worried that the forecast could shift wetter over the weekend and into early next week. Traders noted profit taking ahead of the weekend. The forecast is unchanged from yesterday with parts of IL, IN, and OH expected to see the best rainfall by Monday. IA, MO, and most of MN look dry with a chance of a quarter inch or less. Heat will back off next week which will stabilize some areas that saw rainfall but the Corn Belt needs a complete soaking before the overall supply potential improves. This is not in the short term forecast at the moment. The damage has already been done to a large portion of the crop with most analysts trimmed yield potential by 1-1.2 bushels per acre, nationally. Demand remains as strong as ever with China booking another 110,000 tonnes of US soybeans this morning for the 2013/14 marketing year. Sales remain well above the 5 year average pace and well above the pace needed to hit the USDA estimate. The bears saw momentum to the downside on technical selling and a stronger US Dollar."

FCPO- What Happened After A Retracement In An Uptrend ?

Palm oil futures manage to recover some action yesterday amid positive report on the export figures announced by SGS and ITS. Both of the cargo surveyor recorded an increase about 6%~7% for the Aug vs July 2013. With those increase demand, palm oil futures is going to have another reason to continue rally for the moment. Higher export also help to gradually reduce stockpiles spike especially in this crucial time. If there is some bad news or data is expected, there is no doubt the Bulls will eventually turn their positions to Short if the price are dropping swiftly. But that scenario would not happen at least for the time being. All signage are currently pointing to north and furthermore, Soy oil has begin the trading session by advancing about 0.23 cents to 44.11 cents per pound at the time of writing. Technically, the Bulls are finding their way out from this temporary sideways market. The range we are dealing now is 2,396~2,485, more upside is expected if the benchmark Nov manage to rally above 2,440 today. For today, pivot support for benchmark Nov is located around 2,411 followed by 2,396 while resistance is pegged at 2,440 followed by 2,454.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2454
R1= 2440
S1= 2411
S2= 2396
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


  1. Higher export always need a presentation training and also help to gradually reduce stockpiles spike especially in this crucial time. If there is some bad news or data is expected, there is no doubt the Bulls will eventually turn their positions to Short if the price are dropping swiftly presented.