Thursday, August 15, 2013

Where Were We Now 15th Aug 2013

Thursday, 15th Aug 2013. Step back and assess where we are now. Palm oil has rallied up to 2,308 this week but will the Buyers commitment continue to pour in after this ?  Other news to follow.

"- U.S. stocks fell on Wednesday as investors considered the recent spike in borrowing costs and the timing and pace of reductions in the Federal Reserve's bond purchases. "It looks like tapering is going to begin in September," with the consensus view expecting the Fed to cut its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases to between $60 billion and $65 billion a month, said Rick Robinson, regional chief investment officer for Wells Fargo Private Bank. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -0.73% was down 113.35 points, or 0.7%, at 15,337.66, the blue-chip index's first triple-digit drop since June 28. The S&P 500 index SPX -0.52% declined 8.77 points, or 0.5%, to 1,685.39. The Nasdaq Composite COMP -0.41% lost 15.17 points, or 0.4%, to 3,669.27."

"-Hong Kong stocks edged narrowly higher Tuesday, with property developers among the gainers while some energy producers and diversified conglomerates declined after strong recent gains. The Hang Seng Index HK:HSI +1.21%rose 0.2%, setting out on the path to a fourth straight day of gains, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index was flat, amidst a 0.1% decline for the Shanghai CompositeCN:SHCOMP -0.29% . Chinese property shares added to their recent gains, following a Reuters report that the eastern city of Wenzhou has become the first to ease restrictions on property purchases."

"-Oil futures made a late-day reversal to finish Wednesdaywith a slight gain as traders assessed a weekly U.S. government report on petroleum inventories. September crude CLU3 +0.29%added 2 cents to settle at $106.85 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. "

"-November Soybeans finished up 11 1/4 at 1239, 1 off the high and 26 up from the low. January Soybeans closed up 10 3/4 at 1243 1/4. This was 25 1/4 up from the low and 1 off the high.

December Soymeal closed up 6.3 at 379.1. This was 12.5 up from the low and 0.3 off the high. December Soybean Oil finished down 0.32 at 42.63, 0.47 off the high and 0.09 up from the low. Soybean futures traded higher on the day after briefly probing into negative territory overnight and early this morning. Spreads were steady to higher with CIF bids edging up for nearby shipment. Meal traded higher while oil finished lower on the day. Temperatures were not ideal for crop development overnight with lows in the mid-40's and low 50's for major growing regions. Temperature profiles will ratchet higher into the weekend and next week. The 7-10 rainfall forecast is rather quiet for the central Midwest although some areas of eastern NE and western IA may see light accumulation. Traders still question the cut to US export demand by the USDA on Monday given that year-to-date sales up to this point in the 2013/14 crop year exceed year ago levels and even the 5 year average sales pace. The USDA reported that US private exporters sold 110,000 tonnes of 2013/14 soybeans to China overnight. Record production expectations out of Brazil and Argentina next year seem to be the offset at the moment. September is set to be a tight supply period for the world soybean market due to US harvest delays and the Brazilian export program is beginning put more emphasis on their second corn crop. Next year's Brazilian soybean harvest will begin in April and May. The trade is gearing up for the July NOPA crush report tomorrow where many see it coming in near the June print of just over 119 million bushels. Soybean oil stocks are expected to decline by a modest about but hold above year ago levels."

FCPO- Assessing Our Current Standings.

Palm oil futures ended slightly lower yesterday as Buyers starting to back out gradually after the market has rallied up to 2,308 level this week. The new high reached yesterday somehow does not last long and plunder right after it open at 2,308 level, which likely due to profit taking activities. Take a step back and observe at higher time frame chart, the rally for this particular uptrend remain intact, at least for now. Neutral reading was reported by looking at MPOB data while slightly Bullish export numbers were report by cargo surveyors for the 1-10th Aug vs July 2013 rose about 20%-26%. Price will have no obstacle to fall further if the benchmark Oct dropped below 2,270 this week as that was the current support level formed this week. Market is likely trading within some sideways action today judging on lower closing value from Soy oil overnight. The new benchmark December contract for Soy oil went down about 0.32 cents to 42.63 cents per pound overnight. So here you have a Bullish price sentiment (yesterday) on palm oil and a lower closing value on Soy oil, the result would be a sideways market with 2,309 will act as resistance while 2,276 will serve as support.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2325
R1= 2309
S1= 2276
S2= 2259
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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