Monday, July 22, 2013

Selling pressure continues on Commodities futures 22th July 2013

Monday, 22th July 2013. Weak demand and increase stockpiles concern continue to dampen chances for the palm oil futures to recover this week. Other news to follow. 

"- The S&P 500 index eked out gains to end at another all-time high on Friday, while losses for the technology sector weighed on the Dow industrials and the Nasdaq Composite after disappointing earnings from Advanced Micro Devices Inc. and Microsoft Corp.
The S&P 500 SPX +0.16%  climbed 2.72 points, or 0.2%, to end at 1,692.09, an all-time closing high, its 22nd record this year. For the week, it gained 0.7%. SPX +0.16%Healthcare and energy were the top gainers among the S&P 500’s 10 major sectors, while technology was the biggest decliner."
"- Hong Kong stocks came off premarket gains to open lower Friday, dragged by a sudden drop in Japanese shares some traders blame on a glut of stock-futures selling. The Hang Seng Index HK:HSI +0.08% lost 0.3% to 21,273.76, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index off 1%despite a 0.1% gain for the Shanghai Composite CN:SHCOMP -1.52% . "
"- Oil futures finished flat on Friday, with traders torn between support from an improved outlook for energy demand and falling U.S. crude supplies and pressure from profit-taking, but prices scored their fourth-weekly gain in a row.During the trading session, West Texas Intermediate crude prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange traded a bit higher than Brent crude on ICE Futures — for the first time since 2010, based on weekly settlement prices. But Brent settled with a slight premium over WTI. Oil for August delivery CLQ3 +0.43% added a penny to settle at $108.05 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices, which added 1.5% in Thursday’s regular session, stand at their highest close since March 2012."
"-August Soybeans finished up 21 1/2 at 1490 3/4, 2 off the high and 21 3/4 up from the low. November Soybeans closed up 8 1/4 at 1274. This was 13 1/2 up from the low and 4 1/4 off the high. August Soymeal closed up 12 at 482.4. This was 11.4 up from the low and 2.3 off the high. August Soybean Oil finished down 0.02 at 45.5, 0.19 off the high and 0.1 up from the low. November soybeans closed 8 1/4 cents higher on the session today which leaves the market closing up 16 3/4 cents for the week. August soybeans closed 21 1/2 cents higher on the session and up to the highest level since September and up 61 3/4 cents for the week. The market saw choppy to mostly higher trade early today and was trading up 3 1/2 cents on the day into the mid-session but fund buying emerged to spark the afternoon buying. Old crop tightness in soybeans and meal continues to provide underlying support. August soybean meal closed $12.00 higher today and managed to push up to a new contract high of 484.70. Talk that spot soybeans were bid at $2.63 over September futures in Des Moines helped to support. While the Midwest weather outlook shows good rain for much of the Midwest in the next two weeks, the strength in cash markets and a lack of farmer selling in soybeans has helped to support. In addition, traders see weather in August as more critical to yield potential and this has led to talk that futures are still likely to hold some weather premium for prices."

FKLI -  Not So Smooth Sailing so Far.

After retracing from parabolic rallies that lasted only few minutes last week, index futures regain its positive momentum back last Friday. The spot month July contract finally inches up above 1800 level, a slight relive for those who have longed their way up previously due to that temporary break out. It is not a smooth sailing to the upside yet although more and more supporting factors are showing up recently. The positive news on major market such as U.S stock index performance that regain its profitability as federal reserve yet decide to fully stop their asset buying program at the moment. The positive feedback on U.S market some how did provide much needed support for the regional stock index to recover. Technically, upside momentum is likely to build up soon judging from recent upside break out from 1780-1800 range. 20-30 periods moving average should serve as support line if anything goes wrong from here.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 1807
R1= 1803
S1= 1794
S2= 1790

FCPO - Choppy To Downside Bias As Demand Eroded.

Export figures will be the main headlines for market to move as demand is starting to deteriorate faster than we thought. Price is still pressured by lower than expect demand figures and stockpiles build up would be a big concern for price recovery at the moment. To make things worse, USDA is likely expecting productions for soy bean to double for the 2014 harvest as farmers are doubling their planting acres due to favourable weather condition. Technically, choppy to downside bias price movement is poised to happen today judging from lower low and lower high candle formation on hourly chart. In other words, market Bearish outlook is far from over. The benchmark Oct can dropped a whopping 13% further from last Friday close before it hit 2000 level. For today, pivot support for the benchmark Oct is located around  2,238 while resistance is pegged at 2,288.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2320
R1= 2288
S1= 2238
S2= 2220
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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