Friday, May 10, 2013

Temporary Recovery For FCPO Ahead Of Data Today 10th May 2013

Friday, 10th May 2013. Commodities futures is heading higher ahead of positive anticipation on palm oil data due today. Other news to follow.

"- U.S. stocks ended moderately lower on Thursday, halting Wall Street's record-setting streak, even as data showed that weekly jobless claims fell to a five-year low. "We've come a long way in the first four-and-a-half months of the year, so we're ripe for a small correction," said Joe Heider, regional managing principal for Rehmann Financial Group. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA 0.00% fell 22.50 points to 15,082.62. After five straight record-high finishes, the S&P 500 Index SPX -0.37% lost 6.02 points to 1,626.67. The Nasdaq Composite COMP -0.12% retreated 4.10 points to 3,409.17."

"-Chinese stocks retreated Thursday, prompting a pullback in some other Asian markets after data showing consumer prices rose more than expected. The Shanghai Composite CN:000001 -0.59%  dropped 0.6% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI -0.14%  slipped 0.1%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average JP:NIK +2.40%  declined 0.7% and Australia’s AU:XJO +0.81%ended marginally lower, with both benchmarks unable to hold on to early gains. Each had ended Wednesday at their highest level since June 2008."

"-May Soybeans finished up 12 1/4 at 1491 1/4, 9 off the high and 16 up from the low. July Soybeans closed up 18 at 1408 3/4. This was 21 3/4 up from the low and 1 1/4 off the high.

July Soymeal closed up 5.6 at 413.2. This was 7.0 up from the low and 0.8 off the high. July Soybean Oil finished up 0.4 at 49.22, 0.23 off the high and 0.46 up from the low. The soybean market traded sharply higher on the day led by gains in the May contract as no deliveries have been made and the basis in processor markets continues to advance higher. Traders noted that 145 over the July contract may have traded in Illinois this morning. Meal basis remains strong across the Corn Belt and demand is resilient which is holding the crush pace steady. Tight domestic supplies and slow farmer sales are helping to support spreads, futures, and the basis. The USDA reported that China bought 110,000 tonnes of soybeans from the US for the 2013/14 marketing year. The export sales report had a positive influence on market direction after soybean sales came in at 193,800 tonnes for the current marketing year and 391,700 for the next marketing year for a total of 585,500. As of May 2nd, cumulative sales stand at 99% of the USDA forecast vs. a 5 year average of 94.5%. Sales of 15,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast, down from 24,500 the week prior. Net meal sales came in at 34,400 tonnes for the current marketing year and 37,400 for the next marketing year for a total of 71,800. Cumulative meal sales stand at 103% of the USDA forecast vs. a 5 year average of 78%. Meal sales continue to run at a staggering pace which will need to slow down going forward. Net oil sales came in at 900 tonnes for the current marketing year and cumulative oil sales stand at 80% of the USDA forecast vs. a 5 year average of 72.5%. Sales of 10,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast."

"-Crude-oil futures settled lower Thursday as they pared earlier losses, struggling back toward their five-week high as a decline in U.S. jobless claims raised concerns the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin to pull back from its easy monetary policy. Crude oil for June delivery CLM3 -0.41%declined 23 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $96.39 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, it had reached an intraday low of $95.35."

FCPO- Break Down Or Break Out 

Yes, you are looking at hourly chart break out on benchmark July and yes this break out does not lead to exponential rally, not yet. Market is taking its time to decide where does the positive anticipation on palm oil data really seems to be, which was due to release today. We are expecting more rally if the stock piles and export data went up above expectation. Current expectation for export remain negative at the moment. Technically, the benchmark July is trapping within these range 2,293~2,272 area. Breaking out above 2,293 will result in further rally while breaking down below 2,272 would bring back Bears influence. This area will be known as two days sideways market, which likely happen if the market participation are unsure about or un-clear about the current rumour regarding palm oil data. Or maybe, most positive expectation regarded by market participations have been priced into the market on Wednesday when the market rallies up to 2,293 level. For today, pivot support for July contract is located around 2,275~2,272 followed by 2,262 while resistance is pegged at 2,293~2,296 level.  

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2304
R1= 2296
S1= 2275
S2= 2262
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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