Thursday, May 16, 2013

First Sign Of Temporary Retracement For FKLI 16th May 2013

Thursday, 16th May 2013. Stock index is losing steam to go up gradually but it would not be last for long term. A typical sight to expect in any uptrend market. Other news to follow.

"-U.S. stocks rose Wednesday, with hopes for ongoing central-bank stimulus bolstering sentiment amid economic reports illustrating a contraction in manufacturing. After starting the session in the red, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +0.40% rose 60.44 points to 15,275.69, the index’s 20th record finish this year. Tallying its 20th record close for 2013, the S&P 500 index SPX +0.51%   gained 8.44 points to 1,658.78, with consumer staples faring best and energy the poorest performing of its 10 industry groups."

"- Japanese shares soared Wednesday on the back of a weaker yen and strengthening expectations for earnings growth, sending the benchmark Nikkei Stock Average above the 15,000-point level for the first time in more than five years. Japan’s Nikkei JP:NIK -0.17% was the region’s best performer by far, climbing 2.3% to 15,096.03, a closing level it hasn’t seen since December 2007. Meanwhile, Taiwan’s Taiex XX:Y9999 +0.60% added 0.8%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI +0.29%  rose 0.5% after losing ground in the previous two sessions, China’s Shanghai Composite CN:000001 +0.35% gained 0.4% and South Korea’s KospiKR:SEU +0.64%  inched up 0.1%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 AU:XJO +0.12%  went against the regional trend, dropping 0.6%."

"-  Oil futures ended Wednesday with a slight gain as an unexpected decline in the past week’s U.S. crude supplies helped provide enough support for prices to mark their first gain in five sessions. Prices during the trading session had dropped by more than 2% to touch a low under $93 a barrel as weak euro-zone economic data weighed on prospects for energy demand and fueled a rise in the dollar. Crude-oil prices for June delivery CLM3 -0.13% rose 9 cents, or 0.1%, to settle at $94.30 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after tapping an intraday low at $92.13. They tallied a loss of 2.7% over the past four trading sessions."
"-July Soybeans finished down 2 at 1412 3/4, 10 off the high and 10 1/2 up from the low. November Soybeans closed down 4 1/4 at 1209 3/4. This was 4 up from the low and 11 1/4 off the high.
July Soymeal closed down 1.3 at 410.5. This was 2.9 up from the low and 4.3 off the high. July Soybean Oil finished down 0.41 at 49.35, 0.65 off the high and 0.2 up from the low. Soybeans traded lower on the day amid weak peripheral markets and the US Dollar continued its run higher while copper, crude oil, and gold traded lower. The CRB Index made a new low for the move. The USDA announced this morning that US exporters sold 171,000 tonnes of soybeans to China for the 2013/14 marketing year. News that workers will walk off the job at 3 of the main Brazil ports this week due to failed negotiations with the government were shrugged off as many traders see the improved shipment pace over the last 2 months as evidence that the efficiency in shipments has picked up to China and other world buyers. The NOPA crush report was the story of the day and NOPA pegged April crush at 120.1 million bushels while the market was looking for 125.5 million and the trader estimate range came in at 121-129 million bushels. March crush was reported at 137.08 million bushels and April crush a year ago was pegged at 131.70 million. The fact crush came in below the lowest trader estimate was viewed as negative and sent the July/November spread lower on profit taking but buyers came in late in the session to rally the spread back above +200. The data suggests crush demand is slowing due to firm basis levels in the US but more downtime is needed given the tight supply situation. Domestic crush margins remain relatively healthy for many processors in the Midwest given the firm meal basis and steady demand. Soybean oil traded sharply lower on a modest decline in stocks due to sluggish domestic demand and ample supply. Long term, soybean oil may find support if the crush pace slows further but export capabilities out of the US remains a big question market as Argentina oil becomes available and Malaysian palm oils holds a steep discount to the world market. Soy oil stocks fell to 2.638 billion pounds, down from 2.765 billion in March and below analyst forecasts of 2.65 billion."

FKLI- Calm Down, Temporary Retracement, Nothing Major. 

Stock index and index futures are setting to come down for some profit taking activities this week after surging to historical high few sessions ago. It is normal to anticipate mild retracement after the market have gone up quite high after the election results announced. Most of the Buying spike occur on 6th May 2013 believe to remain, just that it is gradually diminished this week due to profit taking sessions. Most of the short term traders and investors prefer to take their share of money while they still can before the week end tomorrow. Technically, long and medium term upside for the index futures remain intact after the spot month contract manage to surge above previous temporary double top on 6th May 2013, due to the victory of old ruling coalition, Barisan Nasional. BN victory somehow affirm country "stability" and most of the local and foreign institution will mobilize their fund as there was minimal expectation of chaotic transfer of political power. In other words, market participants love stability and with stability that came after a period of uncertainty, much investors want to put their money back into the equity market. For today, May contract pivot support level is located around 1,766 while resistance is pegged at 1,802.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 1802
R1= 1790
S1= 1772
S2= 1766

FCPO- Hovering Within These Range

Remember that I mentioned previously we are trading within a huge consolidation period, now we are still trading within these range suggested on chart above. Palm oil futures had to come down amid negative export data announced yesterday. These bad news would continue to curb price from recovering steadily in the long run, as to force the commodity price to go up demand have to pick. Sluggish demand would not help to reduce palm oil record high stockpiles currently. It is clear to conclude that increasing supply and decreasing demand would result in negative market sentiment in the long run. Technically, medium and long term outlook remain Bearish while for short term, the new benchmark Aug is likely to hover within 2,335~2,340 for the upper range / resistance and lower range / support around 2,276. Market is likely continue to head along with the break out direction if either of these range violated. Judging on current Bearish sentiment, there would be more downside potential if the palm oil futures manage to break down below the lower range. For today, based on pivot calculation alone, benchmark Aug pivot support is located around 2,280 while resistance is pegged at 2,301.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2310
R1= 2301
S1= 2280
S2= 2268

 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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