Friday, March 8, 2013

Upside Potential Magnified For Both FKLI And FCPO 8th March 2013

Friday, 8th March 2013. The index futures and commodity futures went up substantially yesterday and both of these instrument may going for more gains in the future. Other news to follow.

"- The Dow Jones Industrial Average on Thursday closed at another record high after weekly jobless claims declined to a six-week low, bolstering investor optimism a day ahead of the monthly jobs report. "It's another incremental piece of good news could keep the train rolling here," said Art Hogan, market strategist at Lazard Capital Markets. The Dow industrials DJIA +0.23% rose 33.25 points, or 0.2%, to 14,329.49. The S&P 500 index SPX +0.18% gained 2.8 points, or 0.2%, to 1,544.26, just 21 points from its all-time record high, hit in October of 2007. The Nasdaq Composite COMP +0.30% rose 9.72 points, or 0.3%, to 3,232.08. "

"- Japanese stocks on Thursday ended at their best level in more than four years, standing out in Asia as other major markets suffered losses amid caution ahead of key central-bank decisions and economic data.

The Nikkei Stock Average JP:100000018 +1.16%  rose 0.3% to 11,968.08, a closing level it hasn’t seen since September 2008, with exporters broadly advancing. The benchmark had earlier in the day topped the psychologically important 12,000-point level, but pared those gains after the Bank of Japan left its monetary policy unchanged. Most other major markets fell, with China’s Shanghai Composite Index CN:000001 -0.98% falling 1%, South Korea’s Kospi KR:SEU +0.02%  dropping 0.8%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200AU:XJO +0.04% losing 0.2% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI -0.03%  ending marginally lower."

"-Oil futures climbed more than 1% Thursday to settle at their highest level of the month, as weakness in the dollar, easing worries over the euro zone and better-than-expected U.S. data combined to lift the outlook for energy demand. Strength in the euro in the wake of policy decisions by the Bank of England and European Central Bank and remarks from the ECB’s president on the euro zone helped feed a decline in the U.S. dollar. Natural-gas futures also rallied to their highest close of the year on the back of a bigger-than-expected drop in last week’s U.S. supplies. Crude oil for April delivery CLJ3 -0.16%  gained $1.13, or 1.3%, to settle at $91.56 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, climbing back from Wednesday’s 39-cent loss. That was the highest close for a front-month contract since Feb. 28, according to FactSet."

"-May Soybeans finished up 7 1/2 at 1473 1/2, 1 1/4 off the high and 12 3/4 up from the low. July Soybeans closed up 5 at 1453 3/4. This was 11 up from the low and 1 3/4 off the high.
May Soymeal closed up 1.6 at 436.9. This was 4.3 up from the low and 1.4 off the high. May Soybean Oil finished up 0.32 at 50.58, 0.2 off the high and 0.73 up from the low. May soybeans traded higher on the day after export sales data this morning was seen as supportive to market direction. Net weekly export sales came in at 392,000 tonnes for the current marketing year and 990,600 for the next marketing year for a total of 1,382,600 tonnes. Old crop sales were down from the week prior but the pace of sales continues to run at extremely high levels at this point of the marketing year. As of February 28th, cumulative sales stand at 96.5% of the USDA forecast vs. a 5 year average of 84.5%. Sales of only 61,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast, down from 73,300 the week prior. Net meal sales came in at 119,300 tonnes for the current marketing year and no sales were reported for 2013/14. Cumulative meal sales stand at 93.5% of the USDA forecast vs. a 5 year average of 64%. Sales of 17,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast, down from 20,000 tonnes the week prior. Net oil sales came in at -19,700 tonnes for the current marketing year and cumulative oil sales stand at 76% of the USDA forecast vs. a 5 year average of 58%. Sales of 8,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast, up from 7,300 the week prior. Product sales were notably softer this week which suggests international demand might be slowing down as harvest picks up in Brazil and inches closer in Argentina."

FKLI- Upside Breakout Plus Plus

Now most of you would know that the Dow Jones Industrial, America major stock index went up to record high yesterday standing about 14,300 level. It is a great historical moment to marvel but we want that figure to be meaningful, at least to our market. What you have witnessed so far for was major break out for stock index and index futures. The May contract went up to breach major resistance level at 1,640 last three sessions ago. Market is about to recover on higher ground and the significant hint was the ability for the market to breach the major resistance level which took about a month to formed. It is undeniable fact that Long trade set up based on 21 days break out will probably return a positive outcome as it is widely used by most trend following legend until today, i.e: Turtle traders. Now, why does a market went up or down significantly at any given day. There must be some fundamental or technical event that would triggered these movement. The stock index got shocked by our general election fear when it had its major Sell off on mid of January. And then it went on recover above previous resistance trend line recently as the election fear subside. The next fundamental question was probably "how high this recovery can take us" ? Well it can be plenty as the official general election date is yet released and there are still plenty of time to dissolve parliament. The short term and medium term outlook will be Bullish, neither sideways nor Bearish in long term.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 1667
R1= 1661
S1= 1647
S2= 1640

FCPO- Its Coming, Bulls Is Charging  !!!

Believe me you do not want to get caught up in front of the Bulls when it is charging, it will stampede over you. Could a frantic rally that occur about an hour before the market close turned the tide to Bullish ? Why not ?  Say whatever you want with this rally, fake, temporary recovery or it gone up so high due to stops orders and so on, the point was it is so significant you cannot deny it has made back the losses occur for the past two sessions. How could one particular recovery took out all pivot and other important resistance level all in one go ? There must a paradigm shift in cumulative traders perception in order to achieve such feat. And that perception was due to positive expectation in price. The quickest way to turned a market fast and significantly might be sudden news released, hitting major support or resistance level or rival market correlation. My initial assessment for yesterday frantic rally was Soy Oil sudden surged that went up massively from 49.90 to 50.30 consecutively on late afternoon session. For today, palm oil futures is likely following its rival price momentum by going north, and judging on Soy oil 0.75% overnight rally the benchmark May is likely open gap up and continue to rally. Nonetheless, be wary if the benchmark May gap up more than RM35 as there might be some retracement occur right after that gap up. Today, pivot support is likely located around 2,398~2,400 while pivot resistance is located around 2,478.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2478
R1= 2456
S1= 2398
S2= 2362
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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