Friday, March 1, 2013

Slight Rebound From The Low 1st March 2013

Friday, 1st March 2013. Palm oil futures continue to weaken amid Bearish export data couple with negative price momentum on Soy oil. Other news to foolow.

"- U.S. stocks fell on Thursday, making a last-minute retreat after spending most of the day climbing toward record highs, but ended the month with 1% gains. After coming within 15 points of its all-time closing high of 14,164.53, set on Oct. 9, 2007, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -0.15% shed 20.88 points, or 0.2%, to end at 14,054.49. It rose 1.4% for the month for its third straight monthly gain. It’s now 110 points from its record high. The S&P 500 index SPX -0.09% fell 1.31 points, or 0.1%, to 1,514.68, leaving it 50 points from its highest close, hit on Oct. 9, 2007. It rose 1.1% from the end of January, its fourth straight monthly gain.  The Nasdaq Composite COMP -0.07% fell 2.07 points, or 3,160.19, leaving it ahead 0.6% for February, its fourth straight monthly gain."

"- Major Asian stock benchmarks jumped 2% or more on Thursday to end February on a buoyant note, as eased worries over Italy and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s commitment to monetary stimulus boosted investor sentiment.

Indian shares missed the broad uptrend, reversing course to slide lower after Finance Minister Finance Minister P. Chidambaram proposed higher taxes raised taxes on wealthy individuals in his annual budget. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average JP:100000018 -0.15%  soared 2.7%, China’s Shanghai Composite Index CN:000001 -0.11%  climbed 2.3% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng IndexHK:HSI -0.36%  added 2%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index AU:XJO -0.52%  added 1.3% and South Korea’s KospiKR:SEU +1.12%  advanced 1.1%. India’s Sensex IN:1 -1.52%  fell 0.8% to 18,995.77 in Mumbai afternoon trade, way off the day’s peak at 19,322.28."

"- Oil futures declined Thursday, burdened by strength in the U.S. dollar, but losses were somewhat limited by a spate of mostly upbeat U.S. economic data that helped provide a positive outlook for energy demand. The Commerce Department raised its estimate of fourth-quarter gross domestic product, though the increase was less than economists had forecast. Crude oil for April delivery CLJ3 -0.42% fell 71 cents, or 0.8%, to $92.05 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices had climbed 13 cents on Wednesday."

"-May Soybeans finished up 12 3/4 at 1452 1/4, 15 1/2 off the high and 18 1/4 up from the low. July Soybeans closed up 9 1/4 at 1435 1/4. This was 16 1/2 up from the low and 14 1/2 off the high.
May Soymeal closed up 7 at 435.6. This was 7.8 up from the low and 5.2 off the high.
May Soybean Oil finished down 0.55 at 49.12, 0.75 off the high and 0.05 up from the low. May soybeans traded higher on the day after positive export demand data was reported this morning. The July/November soybean spread made a new high for the week and is closing in on the 2013 high. Net weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 689,000 tonnes for the current marketing year and 482,000 for the next marketing year for a total of 1,171,000 tonnes. As of February 21st, cumulative sales stand at 94.5% of the USDA forecast for the current marketing year vs. a 5 year average of 82.5%. Sales of 73,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Net meal sales came in at 250,300 tonnes for the current marketing year and 24,300 for the next marketing year for a total of 274,600 tonnes. As of February 21st, cumulative meal sales stand at 92% of the USDA forecast vs. a 5 year average of 63%. Sales of 20,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Net oil sales came in at 4,800 tonnes and as of February 21st, cumulative oil sales stand at 78% of the USDA forecast vs. a 5 year average of 57%. Sales of 7,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. The USDA also flashed a new sale for 123,000 tonnes of US soybeans to China for the 2013/14 marketing year."

Some News On Stock Index

"March 1  -- Malaysia’s improving exports and domestic demand will help the economy expand 5 percent this year, even as general elections may fuel market volatility, according to an International Monetary Fund staff forecast.
    The national vote, which must be held by late June, is among risks to the country’s outlook, IMF economists said in the report assessing the country’s economy released in Washington late yesterday. The main threats to growth are external, including a slowdown in China, it said.
    “The next general election must be held by June 2013, but has been expected since 2011, leading to a pre-election political climate for the past two years or so,” the IMF staff wrote. The elections “could lead to some market volatility,” they said.
Malaysia’s economy grew at the fastest pace since 2010 in the three months through December from a year earlier as Prime Minister Najib Razak boosted spending ahead of the ballot. Najib, whose ruling coalition won the 2008 vote by its narrowest margin in five decades, must dissolve parliament by April 28 for polls to be held within 60 days.
    The IMF growth forecast is in line with the government’s
prediction of 4.5 percent to 5.5 percent."

FCPO-Still Trapped In Bears Influence

Palm oil futures continue to weaken further amid negative growth on export data and stocks is increasing steadily. Trading participants are becoming more and more Bearish towards first quarter as stock for palm oil is likely adding up. With record high stocks and deteriorating demand, you can guess that the fundamental side of palm oil is just too grim to look at. Technically, the benchmark May negative price outlook remain intact as there is more and more Bearish candle formation formed so far. New lower low and lower high candle formation have formed each passing day and it does not stop till now. Although it is futile to guess support level on a falling marke, my initial assessment on major support would be place on previous low around 2,330~2,334 level, that is where most bargain hunting would kick in. But if anything would go wrong from here and the May contract does breach the major support around 2,330 level, the next support would be place at 2,300 level. In another words, there are still more room for the benchmark May to fall if it breach lower than yesterday low at 2,368. For today, resistance is pegged around 2,422 level.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2449
R1= 2422
S1= 2368
S2= 2341
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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