Thursday, March 21, 2013

Regaining Upside 21st March 2013

Thursday, 21st March 2013. Index futures is struggling to stay on recovery mode this week as the date to dissolve parliament draws near. Other news to follow.

"- U.S. stocks on Monday fell for a second session as Europe’s efforts to get a handle on a rescue of Cyprus provided enough uncertainty for a much-anticipated retreat on Wall Street. After a 109-point fall, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +0.39%   recovered nearly all of those losses only to resume its downward spiral amid conflicting reports on Cyprus. The S&P 500 index SPX +0.67%  shed 8.06 points, or 0.6%, to 1,552.10. Financial companies led declines among the index’s 10 industry sectors, while telecommunications was the best performer. The Nasdaq Composite COMP +0.78%  fell 11.48 points, or 0.4%, to 3,237.59."

"- Mainland Chinese stocks surged Wednesday, leading Asian markets by a big margin even as the Cyprus parliament’s rejection of a European bailout plan fueled some uncertainty elsewhere. The Shanghai Composite index CN:000001 +2.66% jumped 2.7% to 2,317.37 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI +0.97%  climbed 1%, as investors snapped up beaten-down banks and property developers in both markets. South Korea’s Kospi KR:SEU +0.25% declining 1%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index AU:XJO -0.01%  losing 0.4% and Taiwan’s Taiex XX:Y9999 -0.52% shedding 0.5%. Japanese markets were closed Wednesday for a holiday."

"-  Crude-oil futures clawed back to score a gain Monday, as the initial shock of the proposed bailout plan for Cyprus, which includes a levy on bank deposits, started to wear off. Crude oil for April delivery CLJ3 +0.05%  added 29 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at $93.74 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after losing as much as 1.8% to touch a low of $91.76. Prices marked the highest settlement for a front-month contact since Feb. 20."

"-May Soybeans finished up 14 1/4 at 1421, 1 off the high and 14 3/4 up from the low. July Soybeans closed up 13 at 1401. This was 14 up from the low and 1/4 off the high.
May Soymeal closed up 3.4 at 415.0. This was 4.3 up from the low and 0.4 off the high. May Soybean Oil finished up 0.32 at 49.8, 0.3 off the high and 0.33 up from the low. May soybeans traded higher on the day as the market bounced from a slightly oversold nearby position. Calendar spreads saw support with speculative buying interest in the July/November calendar spread. Questions remain as to just how strong Chinese demand for soybeans is at the moment after reports surfaced that Brazilian cargos were canceled. Some analysts suggest that stocks are low in China and delays in loading vessels in Brazil could mean shipments shift to the US. FOB basis levels were steady to slightly weaker midday on soft demand and have fallen from levels late last week which suggests despite delays in Brazil, cargos have not been switched. In fact, inspection data continues to show that shipments have slowed this month. Soybeans also found short covering support on thoughts next week's USDA report could hold a bullish surprise on a sharp revision lower in stocks due to explosive demand so far this crop year."

FKLI- Staying On Some Gains, For Now. 

While Cyprus financial unrest is turning into the next Lehman Brother Inc. scenario, our local stock index and index futures are struggling to hold on gains. After retracing down to 1,608 level last week, the Spot month contract is looking for some mild rebound this week. Medium term technical outlook remain Bearish at the moment and we are placing 1,630~1,632 level as current resistance level. If the market is having some difficulties breaching this level, then there is big possibilities that the next direction would be south. Maybe not as swift as before, the spot month contract is likely coming down gradually after it tested that resistance level. Second lower high on daily chart is expected to form if the spot month contract correct down below 1,618 level this week, signifying strong Bears influence. Based on external development, Malaysia political agenda still remain the headlines for the market to move. After years of establishment, the index futures has evolved rapidly as traders can expect decent trading range and volatile market sessions even after political stability. This can be seen on the total volume transacted on index futures on daily average has improved about two folds. For today, pivot support for March contract is located around 1,618 while resistance is pegged at 1,632 level.

Daily Pivot Point
R1= 1632
S1= 1618
S2= 1609

FCPO- Lets Go Bull, Lets Get Going.

I am not going to give you bored technical analysis that anyone can come up, but I will always point out the most basic analysis based on price action instead. Price action is not an indicators or some mathematical formula that can generate graphical number to show you overbought or oversold reading nor giving you a define Buying / Selling signal based on certain crossing of lines. It does not have any of those. What you can see from price action is chart patterns, candle formation, price break out from a congesting period, new price breach on particular support and resistance. Compared to some rigid black box trading systems, or methods these are all better indications any traders can use to maximize their potential in the market because everything is dynamic and can be tailored from time to time. Technically, positive momentum is building up for the benchmark Jun as there is new higher lows and higher highs formed on hourly chart yesterday. The Bulls ability to breached above 2,430 resistance level proof that market is expected to continue going higher soon. In other words, this will be successful attempt for the Bulls to win their first hurdle to sustain their influence. Whenever there the price breached above the resistance level, the Bulls somehow made a check point or a sign of winning. But if the Bulls were unable to breach above or just merely testing some particular resistance level, Bears are likely resume command and push down the market gradually. For today, the benchmark Jun is expected to open higher judging on Soy oil overnight gains that went pass 50.00 cents per pound. The most actively traded May contract went up to 50.27 cents per pound on the time of writing, that is about 0.79 cents surged in total. Today, pivot support for the benchmark Jun is located around 2,420 while resistance is pegged at 2,468.

Daily Pivot Point
R1= 2454
S1= 2420
S2= 2400

 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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