Monday, March 25, 2013

New Recovery Room In The Making 25th March 2013

Monday, 25th March 2013. Commodities futures on BMD surge on better demand and recent rally on Soy oil also supported palm oil futures recovery. Other news to follow.

"-  U.S. stock futures fell sharply on Monday, with financial equities slammed in premarket trade, following news that Cyprus plans to impose a levy on bank deposits as part of a financial bailout. Investors were watching for news of a crucial vote tied to the bailout and levy in Cyprus on Monday, which according to some reports, was delayed another day. On the U.S. side, a home-builders index is due.

S&P 500 futures SPM3 +0.27%  fell 13.8 points, or 0.9%, to 1,539.80, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures DJM3 +0.24%  dropped 83 points, or 0.6%, to 14,350. Nasdaq 100 futures NDM3 +0.47%  lost 26 points, or 0.9%, to trade at 2,764."
"-Japanese stocks tumbled Friday as the yen firmed up a day after the new Bank of Japan governor offered few new details on future policy, while Hong Kong shares fell after weak results from PetroChina Co. and several other blue-chip firms. Japan’s Nikkei Stock AverageJP:NIK +1.27%  skidded 2.4%, losing more than 2% for a second trading day this week, to rank as the region’s worst performer.  Elsewhere in the region, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI -0.50% fell 0.5%, South Korea’s Kospi KR:SEU +1.34%  eased back 0.1% and Taiwan’s Taiex XX:Y9999 -0.20%  fell 0.2%, while India’s Sensex IN:1 -0.30%  dropped 0.5% in afternoon trading. China’s Shanghai Composite IndexCN:000001 +0.17%  ended up 0.2% in choppy trading, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200AU:XJO +0.66% AU:XJO +0.66% gained 0.2% following a decline Thursday, when Prime Minister Julia Gillard survived a surprise challenge to her leadership of the ruling party."
"-  Oil futures scored a gain Monday, enough to mark their highest settlement since Feb. 20. The initial shock in the financial markets over the proposed bailout plan for Cyprus eased a bit, prompting oil prices to toward the end of the trading session. April crude tacked on 29 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at $93.74 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange."
"-May Soy beans finished down 9 1/2 at 1439 1/2, 9 1/4 off the high and 6 1/2 up from the low. July Soybeans closed down 5 1/2 at 1420. This was 11 1/4 up from the low and 5 off the high.
May Soymeal closed down 4.2 at 418.7. This was 1.9 up from the low and 4.5 off the high. May Soybean Oil finished down 0.12 at 50.3, 0.31 off the high and 0.3 up from the low. May soybeans traded lower on the day as traders took profits after sharp gains seen yesterday. A well followed private grains analyst estimated 2013/14 soybean planted acreage in the US at 78.46 million acres, down from 78.78 previously and against 2012/13 planted acreage of 77.2 million acres. A South American newspaper suggested that the government of Brazil make scrap processor tax credits to the domestic market and instead apply them to export sales of products. Some see this move, if confirmed, as a positive for the export outlook for soybean meal and oil and somewhat negative to normal soybean exports. The plan could also make Brazil's meal and oil export program more competitive with Argentina who already favors this type of tax system. Local traders in Brazil continue to suggest that China is attempting to roll purchased cargos out to deferred delivery months due to the huge vessel lineup at ports and delay's to shipping."

FCPO- Palm Oil Futures Ended Above Three Weeks High

Most market will be looking forward for Cyprus development on financial aid with Russia and EU counterpart as their officials manage to draft out next measures for bail out. Back to BMD, market will hide it's true intention all the time, it whipsawed uninformed and unprepared traders easily, and went up and down without needing any constructive reasons. Market does what it does best, surprise us when it moved drastically from its previous closed. All these movement always mean something. For example, the recent three weeks surge on benchmark Jun occur last Friday. Before the rally occur, there was some early candles formation's signs of further market recovery formed. Higher lows and higher highs formed on the hourly chart since 20th March Wednesday were the early indication that suggest market is likely running on positive momentum. Few will pay heed to this indication and went Long, most would like to Short it because (maybe) it has risen too much. Candles formation is a trend following strategy. The downside of it was it lagged and prone to fake break out but even though it bring low winning trade ration, the risk and reward for using trend following strategy is always brought great profit versus losses. We are likely to see further upside potential on palm oil futures this if there is no significant pullback on Soy oil and the export data continue to gain slightly. No pausing sign for current trend yet. For today, pivot support for the benchmark Jun is located around 2,466 while resistance is pegged at 2,530.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2530
R1= 2512
S1= 2466
S2= 2438
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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