Friday, March 29, 2013

FCPO Major Correction In Making 29th March 2013

Friday, 29th March 2013. Palm oil futures went down for another correction yesterday, marking Bears influence are getting significant. Other news to follow.

"- U.S. stocks surged Tuesday, lifting the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a record and the S&P 500 Index less than 2 points from its all-time closing high, following economic data that showed improvement in home prices and manufacturing.

“The market is shrugging off Cyprus, shrugging off mixed economic data,” said Phil Orlando, chief equity strategist at Federated Investors. “The market is doing fine is the short answer,” he said. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +0.36%  advanced 111.9 points, or 0.8%, to 14,559.65. The S&P 500 SPX +0.41%  climbed 12.08 points, or 0.8%, to 1,563.77, leaving it 1.38 points from its all-time closing high set in October 2007. The Nasdaq Composite COMP +0.34%  rose 17.18 points, or 0.5%, to 3,252.48."

"- Asia stocks came under strong selling pressure Thursday, with banks putting in a particularly weak performance across the region as the first quarter of the year drew to a close for some markets. Chinese stocks slumped as banks there faced an additional drag after the banking regulator there issued new rules Wednesday to improve transparency and disclosures related to the wealth-management products marketed by the lenders. The Shanghai Composite Index CN:000001 -2.82%  was by far the region’s worst performer, slumping 2.8% for its worst one-day loss since March 4. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng IndexHK:HSI -0.74%  fell 0.7%. Elsewhere, Japan’s Nikkei Stock AverageJP:NIK +0.26%  fell 1.3%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 AU:XJO -0.57%  lost 0.6% and South Korea’s Kospi KR:SEU +0.83%  ended little changed.
Thursday’s losses came as the trading week wound down for many markets, with Australian, Hong Kong, Indian, and Singaporean bourses to be closed Friday, along with most of those in Europe and the U.S."

"-  Oil futures settled above $96 a barrel on Tuesday to score their highest close in five weeks, with optimism over energy demand fed by a jump in U.S. durable goods orders. May crudeCLK3 +0.72% rose $1.53, or 1.6%, to end at $96.34 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. "

"-May Soybeans finished down 53 3/4 at 1400, 59 3/4 off the high and 3 up from the low. July Soybeans closed down 50 at 1381. This was 5 up from the low and 55 1/4 off the high.
May Soymeal closed down 18.6 at 404.5. This was 0.5 up from the low and 22.5 off the high.
May Soybean Oil finished down 0.82 at 50, 0.95 off the high and 0.48 up from the low. May soybeans traded sharply lower today after the USDA report was considered bearish against trade expectations. US soybean planted area came in at 77.126 million acres as compared with trade estimates near 78.35 million acres, up from 77.2 million last year. The range of estimates was 77.00-79.7 million acres. Stocks came in at 999.28 million bushels compared with trade expectations at 935 million. This is down from 1.374 billion last year. The high end of the trade estimates was at 1.06 billion bushels with the low end at 900 million. Net weekly export sales came in at 66,400 tonnes for the current marketing year and 607,700 for the next marketing year for a total of 674,100 tonnes. As of March 21st, cumulative sales stand at 97.5% of the USDA forecast vs. a 5 year average of 87.5%. Sales of 40,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Net meal sales came in at 137,200 tonnes for the current marketing year and 3,900 for the next marketing year for a total of 141,100. As of March 21st, cumulative meal sales stand at 97% of the USDA forecast vs. a 5 year average of 69%. Sales of 10,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Net oil sales came in at 12,600 tonnes for the current marketing year and cumulative sales stand at 79% of the USDA forecast vs. a 5 year average of 64%. Sales of 8,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast."

FCPO- Long holders, Bets Are Officially Off. 

You heard me right. Long bets are off, market has breach below the previous low / support level at 2,426. The continues falling price on palm oil signified that the Sellers are becoming aggressive day by day. Yesterday gapped down was part of the earmark of Bears gaining control and they done it by breaching below the support level. Not to aggravate the current outlook for palm oil futures, recent downfall for the benchmark Jun has shut off most of the chances market to recover. You can forget about Shorting when the market rally for this near term because there would be another gap down today on opening session judging on weaker closing value on overnight Soy oil. The most actively traded May contract went down about 0.82 cents to 50 cents per pound due to Bearish USDA report. Planting area increased and stocks hike up on Soy bean, forcing the price to came down significantly. It will be a challenging period for the palm oil futures to recover as demand is deteriorating and stocks level refuse to go down substantially. Technically, the benchmark Jun has turned Bearish based on lower low and lower high candle formation formed on hourly chart above. Both short term and medium term technical perspective have now become Bearish. Today, Traders can opt to go Short if there some recovery made on the opening bell after the gap down. Short if the market recovered about 12 points from the opening value and place about 10 points Buy Stop above that entry. You can expect about 20 points possible profit at the end of the sessions or just trail it with 12 points apart. Pivot support for Jun contract is located around 2,397 followed by 2,384 while resistance is pegged at 2,424 level.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2437
R1= 2424
S1= 2404
S2= 2397
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

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