Monday, February 4, 2013

Palm Oil Rose To Monthly High 4th Feb 2013

Monday, 4th Feb 2013. Palm oil futures rose to weekly high while index futures maintaining its fluctuation above 1,600 level. Other news to follow.

"- U.S. stocks rallied Friday to cap a fifth week of gains that lifted the Dow Jones Industrial Average above 14,000 for the first time in five years after reports on jobs and manufacturing brightened Wall Street’s view of the economic recovery. The Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA +1.08%  rose 149.21 points, or 1.1%, to 14,009.79, its first finish above the 14,000 level since Oct. 12, 2007. The S&P 500 index SPX +1.01%  gained 15.06 points, or 1%, to 1,513.17, posting a 0.7% weekly advance, with telecommunications leading the gains among its 10 major industry groups.

The Nasdaq Composite COMP +1.18%   added 36.97 points, or 1.2%, to 3,179.09, up 0.9% from last Friday’s finish."

"- Most Asian stocks overcame choppy movements to end higher Friday, as investors remained optimistic about the Chinese economic outlook despite a mild disappointment over official data on the country’s manufacturing sector.
Japanese shares finished higher as the yen fell to multi-year lows against the euro and the U.S. dollar, while mainland Chinese stocks rebounded from early weakness on an afternoon rally in banking shares. China’s Shanghai Composite Index CN:000001 +1.41%  was the day’s best performer, rising 1.4% to 2,419.02. Meanwhile, Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average JP:100000018 +0.42%  rose 0.5%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index AU:XJO +0.12%  advanced 0.9% and Taiwan’s Taiex XX:Y9999 +0.08%edged up 0.1%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI -0.03% ended little changed after moving in both directions, while South Korea’s Kospi KR:SEU +0.24% slipped 0.2%."
"- Oil futures ended with a weekly gain of 2%, modestly higher for Friday’s session, as traders assessed the latest data on U.S. jobs, manufacturing and consumer sentiment for clues on demand prospects. London-traded Brent crude futures, meanwhile, rallied as unrest in the Middle East region intensified with the bombing of the U.S. embassy in Turkey. The March contract for West Texas Intermediate oil CLH3 -0.26% climbed 28 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at $97.77 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices, which ended the month of January with a gain of more than 6%, was 2% higher for the week."

"-March Soybeans finished up 5 1/2 at 1474, 12 1/2 off the high and 10 1/4 up from the low. November Soybeans closed up 4 3/4 at 1332 1/2. This was 8 1/4 up from the low and 6 1/2 off the high. March Soymeal closed up 1.8 at 428.2. This was 2.8 up from the low and 4.8 off the high. March Soybean Oil finished up 0.13 at 52.99, 0.58 off the high and 0.35 up from the low. The soybean complex traded higher into the closing bell on a questionable weather outlook for South America. Sharp losses in the wheat market added resistance which took soybeans well off their session highs. Additional momentum came from a sharply lower US dollar after investors saw better than expected economic data this morning and the Dow Jones hit 14,000. Showers were expected today and tomorrow in Argentina but warm temperatures and a drier outlook next week may add stress to crops. The Brazilian weather forecast is less threatening to the production outlook with showers lingering in central and northern Brazil to end the week and more expected in the 2 week forecast which could delay some harvest progress. The southern region is still a tad drier than normal but limited stress is expected and showers are set arrive soon. Traders continue to weigh the less than ideal production outlook for Argentina against the more favorable estimate in Brazil. Additionally, further delays to the Mato Grosso harvest could extend vessel lineups at Brazilian ports and move spot demand back to the US border."
FKLI-Still yet Out Of The Frying Pan Yet. 

Toss into the frying pan due to election fear, the stock index and index futures were Sell off last two weeks and it did not seems to stop yet until now. Contrary to most believe, market is yet come to a stage where it "stabilize" and I seriously doubt market can be stabilize in any given time, only ranging at some point of time. This is due to the trading horizon or trading period of futures contract itself, most of the positions held are short to medium term. While stabilizing market is likely pointing to monthly basis and it is less suitable to use in this context. Technically, the new spot month Feb contract is expected to hover above 1,600 but capped around  1,640 at this moment. More recovery is poised to take place if the Feb contract manage to breach above 1,640 level while more weakness is likely dominate if the major psychological support level 1,600 is taken out. Externally, we are likely to see more promising market direction after the Malaysia general election results after the fear of election uncertainty subside. Expect high volatility if there is new power overtook the parliament this first quarter.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 1630
R1= 1627
S1= 1617

FCPO- Long Term Outlook Likely Changed To Bullish

Rising to weekly high and more coming today, palm oil futures is poised to reverse its long term Bearish outlook to Bullish this week. It is a feat for the Bulls to keep pushing the market above 2,520 level last week but they made it with so much confidence. Not only the benchmark April surpasses previous weekly resistance level above 2,520, it manage to close RM45 higher to 2,555 on previous Thursday. With regard of recent Soy oil substantial recovery, palm oil futures is likely tail its positive trail. As the time of writing, Soy oil for March contract is traded at 53.26 level, up about 0.30 cents from previous Thursday close. Trading participants are also expecting demand to be improve on palm oil as the discount to Soy products widening, more and more consumer are willing to switch to cheaper alternative. Moreover, the benchmark April positive momentum is expected to continue today judging from higher lows and higher highs candle formation formed in within hourly to 15 minutes time frame. For today, pivot point support for the benchmark April is located around 2,523 while resistance is pegged at 2,624.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2624
R1= 2589
S1= 2523

 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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