Tuesday, February 19, 2013

Bull Might Resume Control 19th Feb 2013

Tuesday, 19th Feb 2013. Palm oil futures edges up for the first time yesterday as trading participants expecting better export figures at the end of the February. Other news to follow.

"-The S&P 500 Index finished Friday with its seventh consecutive week of gains as a choppy trading day was buffeted by worries of weak retail sales and supported by positive economic data.

The S&P 500 index SPX -0.10%  fell 1.59 points, or 0.1%, to close at 1,519.79, with telecom the best gainer and energy the biggest decliner among its 10 major industry groups. The index, however, rose 0.1% for the week, extending a seven-week winning streak not seen since January 2011. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +0.06%  rose 8.37 points, or less than 0.1%, to close at 13,981.76. That comeback wasn’t enough to save the Dow for the week as it logged its second week of losses in a row, with a 0.1% decline."
"- Asian markets ended mostly higher Monday, with a slide in the yen after the weekend Group of 20 meeting boosting Japanese equities, although Chinese stocks bucked the trend as trading resumed after a week-long holiday. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average JP:100000018 -0.14%  jumped 2.1%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index AU:XJO +0.11%  rose 0.6%, South Korea’s Kospi KR:SEU +0.09%  ended fractionally higher and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI -0.27%  slipped 0.3%. Taiwan’s Taiex XX:Y9999 +0.47%  gained 0.5% and China’s Shanghai Composite IndexCN:000001 -0.45% fell 0.5% as investors in both markets returned after last week’s Lunar New Year holidays."
"-March Soybeans finished up 8 1/2 at 1426 1/2, 1 1/2 off the high and 11 1/2 up from the low. November Soybeans closed down 3 at 1261 3/4. This was 4 up from the low and 7 3/4 off the high.
March Soymeal closed up 2.8 at 410.0. This was 3.8 up from the low and 1.1 off the high. March Soybean Oil finished unchanged at 51.7, 0.28 off the high and 0.26 up from the low. March soybeans traded higher on the day after the slide lower earlier this week. Light profit taking and short covering was noted but demand data has been less than stellar vs. market expectations on the day. It was reported this morning that China has canceled 250,000 tonnes of US soybeans for 2012/13 marketing year. Some traders believe more cancelations could be on the way once the Brazilian harvest picks up while other feel additional US purchases may be made next week after China comes back from their holiday. NOPA pegged January crush at 158.2 million bushels which fell below market estimates of about 160 million bushels and against December crush of 159.9 million bushels. While the data missed market estimates, many in the trade point to the fact that crush is now up close to 9-10% over the last year while the USDA has crush demand down 5.2% vs. last year. The data suggests demand may be far stronger than the USDA is projecting which could be a positive for the market in the long term."
FCPO- Bulls Might Regain Strength.

After retracing mostly on last week, palm oil futures started its session this week with some impressive come back. The new benchmark may gained about RM34 to 2,536 with decent volume being traded on yesterday session. Most trading participants are likely coming back from Chinese new year holiday last week, that's explain how the volume on the benchmark month alone could hit about 21,778 lots. External side, market is expecting better export data this month as local planters are pushing their stocks out before the implementation of 4.5% export tax in March, currently the export tax for palm oil is zero for Jan and Feb. On the technical side, we are likely looking at early hint for the market to recover further. The higher low Bullish candle formation on the hourly chart suggest that the Bulls are preparing to return soon and there will be a small higher high if it could topple above 2,567 level today. On longer time frame, market is technically Bullish judging from the higher low and higher high formation formed so far on daily chart. In other words, price weakening that occur few weeks ago you have seen were likely typical correction happened on most uptrend. For today, pivot support for the benchmark May is likely located around 2,510 while resistance is pegged at 2,579.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2579
R1= 2559
S1= 2510
S2= 2481
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

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