Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Ranging Till Next Week 29th Jan 2013

Tuesday, 29th jan 2013. Palm oil futures is likely trading within sideways market from this point forward amid holiday seasons next week. Other news to follow. 

"-- U.S. stocks ended mostly lower on Monday, snapping the S&P 500's SPX -0.18% eight-session winning streak, following mixed reports on the U.S. economy. The S&P 500 slipped 2.78 points, or 0.2%, to 1,500.18, with materials the biggest weight among its 10 major sectors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -0.10% dropped 14.05 points, or 0.1%, to end at 13,881.93. Bucking the negative trend, the Nasdaq Composite COMP +0.15% gained 4.59 points, or 0.2%, to 3,154.30, as shares of technology-sector heavyweight Apple Inc. AAPL +2.26%rose 2.3%. "

"- Most Asian markets gained Monday after a corporate-results-driven rally on Wall Street and amid a positive earnings outlook for Chinese firms, but Japanese stocks fell from near three-year highs as investors took profit. The Shanghai Composite Index CN:000001 -0.03%  jumped 2.4% to 2,346.51, its best finish since June, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI -0.18%  climbed 0.4%, and Taiwan’s Taiex XX:Y9999 +0.69% gained 0.6%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average JP:100000018 +0.63%  briefly topped 11,000, reclaiming the milestone for the first time since April 2010, before retreating as profit-taking kicked in. The benchmark ended down 0.9% at 10,824.31. The Kospi KR:SEU +0.83%  shed 0.4% in Seoul, while markets in Australia were closed for a holiday.
"-Crude-oil futures climbed Monday to settle above $96 a barrel as unrest in the Middle East fed supply concerns, and as traders weighed the outlook for energy demand against mixed U.S. economic data.
Natural gas, meanwhile, took a sharp tumble as warmer weather was forecast for much of the United States over the next several days. Crude for March delivery CLH3 +0.22%  tacked on 56 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $96.44 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, its highest settlement level in almost a week."
"-March Soybeans finished up 6 at 1447, 5 1/2 off the high and 12 1/4 up from the low. November Soybeans closed up 5 at 1308. This was 10 up from the low and 3 1/2 off the high.
March Soymeal closed up 3.9 at 420.3. This was 5.7 up from the low and 0.9 off the high. March Soybean Oil finished down 0.21 at 51.89, 0.47 off the high and 0.17 up from the low. March soybeans traded higher on the day after midday weather updates showed slightly less rainfall for Argentina than previously expected. The Brazil harvest is moving along with Mato Grosso at 7.1% complete vs. 5.8% in the same period last year. A local analyst released updated crop production outlooks for Brazil last Friday and pegged production at 84.7 million tonnes vs. 84.3 in December. Export demand remains strong and the USDA reported that US private exporters sold 220,000 tonnes of soybeans to China for the 2013/14 marketing year. Export Inspections for the week ending January 24th were pegged at 40.7 million bushels, down from 48.1 last week. Shipments needed per week to reach the USDA export estimate are 12.6 million bushels, down from 13.4 the week prior. The cumulative shipment pace is now 71% of the USDA forecast vs. the 5 year average of 55%. The pace of sales and shipments favors the bulls but the market continues to focus on South American weather and their production outlook in the short term."
FCPO- Investors Prepare For Holiday Season Starting Next Week

Palm oil futures is likely hovering within ranging session this week judging from price action on other edible oil such as Soy oil. The most actively trade Soy oil for March contract was trading 52.37~51.72 per pound since last one week. Hence, palm oil price is likely consolidating around 2,420~2,490 throughout this week. Otherwise if there is any major break through on Soy oil which move away from its trading range above 52.37 or below 51.72, palm oil futures price action is likely mimic partial of that movement as well. On the external side, record high stockpiles and slower demand will be a challenge for the palm oil futures to recover above 2,490 for the time being. While the Indonesian palm oil export remain unchanged, this might give little advantage for the local exporter to compete. Technical side, the  benchmark Aprill is still showing signs of promising recovery judging from previous week higher high and higher low candle formation. Apart from that, couple with today's recovery, it is safe to say that the benchmark April has created another higher lows when the price recovered to 2,470 a moment ago.  Nonetheless, the benchmark April need to breached above 2,520 level in order to establish long term Bullish perspective. For today, pivot support is located around 2,435 while resistance is pegged at 2,475 level. 

Daily Pivot Point 
R2= 2476
R1= 2460
S1= 2435
S2= 2426
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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