Sunday, December 30, 2012

Positive Momentum Still Good 31st Dec 2012

Monday 31st Dec 2012. Palm oil futures continue to head higher on previous Friday, closing above 2,500 level for the first time after two months of down trend previously. Other news to follow.

"-U.S. stocks fell hard on a report that President Barack Obama did not have a new offer to avert the so-called fiscal cliff in talks with congressional leaders Friday afternoon. The Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA -1.21%  shed 158.20 points, or 1.2%, at 12,938.11, off 1.9% from the week-ago close. The S&P 500 Index SPX -1.10%  shed 15.67 points, or 1.1%, at 1,402.43, leaving it with a weekly decline of 1.9%. The Nasdaq Composite IndexCOMP -0.86%  lost 25.59 points, or 0.9%, at 2,960.31, down 2% for the week."

"- Asian stocks extended gains Friday as investors held on to hopes U.S. lawmakers could still reach an agreement before the year-end to avert the fiscal cliff, with Japanese shares ending 2012 on a high note as the yen fell to levels it hasn’t seen since 2010. On the last trading day of 2012, the Nikkei Stock Average JP:100000018 +0.70%  ended 0.7% higher, clinching a near-23% gain for the full year — its best yearly performance since 2005. Japanese markets will be closed Monday for New Year’s Eve. Elsewhere, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI +0.21%  edged 0.2% higher, China’s Shanghai Composite Index CN:000001 +1.24% climbed 1.2% and Taiwan’s TaiexXX:Y9999 +0.67%  gained 0.7%. South Korea’s Kospi KR:SEU +0.49%  and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 AU:XJO +0.50%  each finished 0.5% higher."

"- Oil futures modestly fell Friday following a government report showing a smaller-than-expected decline in the nation’s crude supplies last week, but the commodity still logged a win for the week.

Crude for February delivery CLG3 -0.28%  slipped 7 cents, or 0.1%, at $90.80 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. But tracking the front-month contract, crude rose by 2.4% for the holiday-shortened week."
"-January Soybeans finished up 4 3/4 at 1423 1/2, 8 1/4 off the high and 6 up from the low. March Soybeans closed up 2 1/2 at 1416 1/2. This was 3 3/4 up from the low and 10 3/4 off the high.
January Soymeal closed down 2.1 at 427.7. This was 0.8 up from the low and 5.3 off the high. January Soybean Oil finished up 0.65 at 48.94, 0.12 off the high and 0.54 up from the low. March soybeans traded higher on the day as traders evened up positions ahead of the weekend after the slide in prices earlier this week. Export sales were considered bearish against trade estimates but many were expected a lower sales number considering the recent cancellations by China. Net weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 87,000 tonnes and as of December 20th, cumulative sales stand at 83% of the USDA forecast for the current marketing year vs. a 5 year average of 68%. Net meal sales came in at 124,700 tonnes for the current marketing year and 100 tonnes for the next marketing year for a total of 124,800. As of December 20th, cumulative sales stand at 77.5% of the USDA forecast vs. a 5 year average of 48%. Net oil sales came in at 17,200 tonnes for the current marketing year and as of December 20th, cumulative sales stand at 77% of the USDA forecast vs. a 5 year average of 38.5%. To offset the bearish data, the USDA reported that US private exporters sold 30,000 tonnes of soybean oil to an unknown destination and 165,000 tonnes of soybeans to China, both were for 2012/13 delivery."

FCPO- Bulls Are Still Charging

For those who thought that there was no way market would go that way or this way, well guess what, market always went the way that least expected. Most might agree that the initial impression on this recovery was rather a sceptical temporary rally at the first place. But once it could sustain it positive momentum above certain resistance area and kept on making new high, those sceptical group of traders might be riding on the wrong direction, dead wrong in fact. The point is, market will tend to have strong reversal point or occasion especially when it manage to rebound from a major weekly support shown on the chart above. In this case, it was the ability on the benchmark month to bounce above the major weekly support level at 2,225~2,220 two weeks ago. For any event that occur in the market, it is not coincidence. Any major event that happen has it own reason behind and it is up to traders discretion to re-act on it. On last Friday close, the benchmark March closed RM13 higher to 2,494, the day high and low was traded within 2,515~2,467 level. The Bullish price action is likely intact on both short to medium term and even there was a strong Sell-off any time from now, it has to breach below today second pivot support level in order to reverse this Bullish sentiment market to Bearish market. Traders are also advised to tuned into smaller time frame chart such as 15 minutes chart to detect any early sign of Bearish candle formation such lower high and lower low. Market is likely going down for some session of correction if these Bearish candle formation does formed in 15 minutes chart. Else the benchmark March is likely heading upwards again today.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2540
R1= 2517
S1= 2469
S2= 2444
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

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