Tuesday, December 4, 2012

New Low On FCPO 5th Dec 2012

Wednesday, 5th Dec 2012. The FCPO headed lower early this week as market participants are expecting weaker demand for Nov period. Other news to follow.

"- U.S. stock indexes fell slightly Tuesday as political leaders wrangled in budgets talks to avert steep tax hikes and spending cuts that could push the economy into recession. Extending losses into a second session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -0.11% declined 13.82 points, or 0.1%, at 12,951.78. The S&P 500 Index SPX -0.17%  lost 2.41 points, or 0.2%, at 1,407.05, with telecommunications leading the losses and industrials faring best among its 10 sectors. The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP -0.18%  fell 5.51 points, or 0.2%, at 2,996.68."

"-Most of Asia’s major stock markets lost ground Tuesday after some weak global manufacturing data contrasted with earlier numbers showing improvement at Chinese factories. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average JP:100000018 -0.27%  fell 0.2%, South Korea’s KospiKR:SEU -0.25%  lost 0.3%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index AU:XJO -0.62%  traded down 0.5% after a quarter-point interest-rate cut by the central bank. In China, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI +0.15%  managed to squeak out a 0.1% gain, but the Shanghai Composite Index CN:000001 +0.78%  lost another 0.4% to hit a fresh four-year low."

"- Crude futures fell Tuesday, marking their first loss in four sessions, with demand concerns festering as wrangling continues in Washington over a deal to avert automatic tax increases and spending cuts next year. Oil for January delivery CLF3 +0.03%  dropped 59 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at $88.50 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It traded as low as $87.57 but reached a high of $89.18, according to FactSet data."

"-January Soybeans finished up 1 3/4 at 1455 1/2, 5 1/2 off the high and 19 1/2 up from the low. March Soybeans closed up 2 at 1450 1/4. This was 20 1/4 up from the low and 5 off the high.

January Soymeal closed up 1.7 at 440.3. This was 4.8 up from the low and 0.7 off the high. January Soybean Oil finished down 0.15 at 50.06, 0.41 off the high and 1 up from the low. January soybeans finished the day near the unchanged after staging an impressive recovery off the lows in the last hour of trading. Soybean oil finished the day lower while meal ended higher on the day. Rumors that China may have bought soybean cargos off the PNW yesterday firmed the basis in the west and provided a bullish tilt to calendar spreads. The strong pace of soybean, oil, and meal exports for the US continues to provide the market with a bullish foundation. South American weather remains mostly favorable which is helping to offset the demand influences. Argentina will trend wetter this week which could delay corn planting and possibly shift more acres to soybeans. Central and Northern Brazil will see steady showers and Southern Brazil has a better chance for rainfall it the short term forecast. The US Dollar traded lower throughout the day which is generally supportive to commodities."

FKLI- Heading Into Range Session 

Closing slightly unchanged on stock index yesterday, market may need more than good news to continue recovering from here. With build up Selling pressure previously, market is set to correct more if there is new low formed this week. And with less encouraging for the regional market to recover due to Greece debt crisis and fiscal cliff worries, equities market is expected to have a uphill battle going up. Technically, the ability for the Dec contract to recover after it went down to 1,595 level might signifies that support based on previous low around 1,585 level remain intact. Judging from the low at previous Wednesday at 1,590 level and high on last Friday at 1,616 level, market is likely hovering within these range for the rest of this week. Else there would be another Sell-off if there is another break down below 1,595~1,590 level. If we are fortunate enough, the index futures might continue to recover if the Dec contract manage to breach above previous week high at 1,616 level. For today, pivot support for Dec contract is located around 1,596 while resistance is pegged at 1,615.

Daily Pivot Point
R2=1,615
R1=1,609
S1=1,596
S2=1,588

FCPO- Prepare For Round One Sell-Off

What do you know after the price successfully formed a lower high and lower low formed, the answer would be further price correction rather than to surge upwards. The psychology behind this Bearish candle formation is so reliable that it always fulfil the criteria of a downturn market, period. Nothing is more self fulfilling when you observe your own methodology works over and over again, with the condition that you stick to your contingency plan when the price move out of your expectation. The keywords here would be allowing a fair time for your own methodology to work and understand how you can "master" it, not changing the whole concept or technique when the method or system does not perform. Most likely, you would not make an impressive discovery if you kept on looking for the "high winning chances ", or "perfect system" out there. Every success trader will have their own technique or methodology, but most will agree it is the risk or money management that make them stand out or unique, because any technique or methodology are created with flaws and flaws is something people cannot accept. To compensate this "flaws", money management or risk management is used. Back to market outlook, the benchmark Feb is expecting to retrace deeper today based on the Bearish candle formation formed so far. It is easier for the market to fall further rather than to rally as there is no significant sign for the recover yet. Bullish price action such as higher low and higher high is essential to mark an temporary pause on current price weakness before it could recover further. Hence for today, pivot support for benchmark Feb is located around 2,258 while resistance is pegged at 2,338.

Daily Pivot Point
R2=2,338
R1=2,318
S1=2,278
S2=2,258
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

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