Monday, October 8, 2012

Recovering In Progress 8th Oct 2012

Monday, 8th Oct 2012. Index futures chartered new highs as equity market surge amid promising development over the European debt crisis and steadier performance over regional index. Other news to follow.

"-U.S. stocks finished mixed on Friday, but posted weekly gains, as enthusiasm over a drop in the U.S. unemployment rate gave way to caution ahead of the beginning of the quarterly earnings season. The Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA +0.26% rose 34.79 points, or 0.3%, to 13,610.15, and posted a weekly gain of 1.3%. The S&P 500 index SPX -0.03% ended nearly unchanged, slipping 0.47 point to 1,460.93, but it gained 1.4% for the week. The Nasdaq Composite COMP -0.42% dropped 13.27 points, or 0.4%, to 3,136.19"

"- Asian stocks mostly rose Friday as investors pushed up commodity-related firms, while shares in Tokyo briefly slid into losses after the Bank of Japan refrained from announcing fresh monetary easing. With key U.S. jobs data on tap for later in the global trading day, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index AU:XJO +0.94%  gained 0.9% to 4,494.40 for a seventh straight session of gains. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI +0.50% rose 0.5% to 21,012.38, South Korea’s Kospi KR:SEU +0.12%  edged up 0.1% to 1,995.17 and Taiwan’s Taiex XX:Y9999 +0.11% climbed 0.1% to 7,690.65. Mainland Chinese markets remained closed for the Golden Week holidays."

"-Oil futures settled at their lowest in a week after a boost from the U.S. jobs report was short-lived without overt geopolitical worries to support prices. Oil for November delivery CLX2 -1.95% fell $1.83, or 2%, to $89.88 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange."


"-November Soybeans finished unchanged at 1551 1/2, 18 off the high and 7 up from the low. January Soybeans closed unchanged at 1551. This was 6 3/4 up from the low and 18 off the high. December Soymeal closed up 2.3 at 471.2. This was 3.7 up from the low and 5.4 off the high. December Soybean Oil finished down 0.25 at 51.19, 0.69 off the high and 0.21 up from the low. November soybeans closed near 1 cent higher on the session but down about 48 1/2 cents for the week. The market saw choppy and two-sided trade early in the day and managed a strong rally to as much as 18 cents higher on the day after the pit opening. News that China bought another 180,000 tonnes of US soybeans for the 2012/13 season helped to support the market. The rally fell short of yesterday's highs as traders seem to feel that the bounce off of Wednesday's lows has helped to alleviate the short-term oversold condition of the market. The market set-back to near unchanged on the day into the mid-session due to weakness in the other grains and bearish crop production estimates for next week's reports with more and more traders looking for a 2-4 bushel per acre increase in soybean yield. While a constant flow of bullish demand news has helped to provide support, the market is still trying to absorb news of higher than expected soybean yields and weather which is very conducive to an active harvest. Basis levels on the river are firm today supported by active demand news. The solid China buying comes just one day after a weekly sales total of 1.3 million tonnes and traders are somewhat optimistic that China buyers may be active again next week after returning from holiday."
FKLI- Maintained Positive Gear

The equity index is running on the positive gear judging on steady gains made from the past few sessions, last week. It was a feat for the market to climbed back up and hit new historical high at 1,671.50 level after previous correction last three weeks. Sentiment is likely getting better for the stock index to go up as European central bank president Mario Draghi  said the banks ready to buy bonds to ease concern over their debt crisis. On the other hand, the U.S Dow Jones Industrial inches up as job unemployment dropped slightly last Friday and third quarter earning season for major companies will start to announce this coming Tuesday. Technically, equity market is likely continue to head north after it survived previous correction and we are going to see more new highs form this week. Not only that, this rally should be prolong for medium term as both of the stock index and index futures have formed another higher highs on daily chart. History is likely repeating itself as market will create more new high after recovering from previous major correction. Daily pivot resistance is likely breach on most uptrend and this one is not an exception. We are likely to see new high form soon if the stock index could maintain its positive momentum this week.

Daily Pivot Point
R2=1675.50
R1=1669
S1=1658.50
S2=1654.50

FCPO- Recovered Some Ground After Previous Sell-Off. 

Palm oil futures is taking break from falling steeper after it fell down to at least three years low last week. The main headline for the palm oil futures will be technical rebound, at least for the moment. Judging on external factor, palm oil is still susceptible for another round of Sell-off as stockpile is expected to increase up to 2.5 millions tons for the Sept month. And that not all, this technical rallies will soon be over thanks to the active Soya bean harvesting activities in midwest U.S, palm oil prices are likely to get hit in any direction because of its rival products. MPOB will release its official palm oil export, production and stockpiles reports on every 10th, which happen to be this coming Wednesday. On technical perspective  palm oil futures does rallied after the chart pattern of Bullish harami candle formed on previous Wednesday last week, but this is only a temporary reversal from previous Bearish market. A 2%~8% technical rebound is typical ratio to expect for FCPO after the market had a major Sell-off since previous three weeks. While we could be looking at more sustainable upside if the palm oil futures could recover more than 10% from its bottom. Nonetheless  price action such as higher low and higher high form on daily chart is better parameter to measure how reliable this upside will be for longer time frame. Else, for early signage, market might turn back to Bearish mode if there is any lower high and lower low formed on hourly. For today, pivot support for the benchmark Dec is located around 2,378 while resistance is pegged at 2,485.

Daily Pivot Point
R2=2485
R1=2450
S1=2378
S2=2341
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

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