Monday, July 30, 2012

Market Overview 1st july 2012

Tuesday, 1st July 2012. The stock index surged higher due to late Buying activities on Petronas Gas berhad yesterday, but most of the gain was made on steadier regional performance. Other news to follow.

"-  U.S. stocks fell Tuesday, trimming a second month of gains, as investors worried central banks would not come through with enough stimulus to bolster the global economy.  The Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA -0.49%   fell 64.33 points, or 0.5%, to 13,008.68, up 1% month-to-date. The index posted its ninth monthly gain in 10. The S&P 500 index SPX -0.43%   lost 5.98 points, or 0.5%, to 1,379.32, giving it a 1.3% rise from the end of June. The Nasdaq Composite COMP -0.21%   shed 6.32 points, or 0.2%, to 2,939.52, leaving it with a 0.2% gain for July."

"-Most Asian markets advanced Tuesday on continued hopes for policy easing from major global central banks and some positive earnings reports, with Japanese and Hong Kong stocks among those clinching a fourth straight day of gains. South Korea led the region’s gains as the Kospi KR:SEU -0.49% jumped 2.1%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI +1.08%  climbed 1.1%, Japan’s Nikkei Stock AverageJP:100000018 -1.04%  rose 0.7% and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index AU:XJO -0.11% climbed 0.6%. Defying the regional trend for the second time this week, China’s Shanghai Composite Index CN:000001 -0.30%dropped 0.3% to 2,103.63, finishing at its worst level since March 2009. "

"- August Soybeans finished down 4 3/4 at 1721, 21 off the high and 9 1/2 up from the low. November Soybeans closed down 2 1/2 at 1641. This was 11 1/4 up from the low and 22 1/4 off the high. August Soymeal closed down 1.4 at 544.9. This was 3.5 up from the low and 9.3 off the high. August Soybean Oil finished down 0.02 at 52.55, 0.51 off the high and 0.4 up from the low. November soybeans traded slightly lower into the close but traded both sides of the unchanged today. Early pressure was seen just prior to the start of pit trading, but the market found good support near the lows of the day. A late day sell off was linked to spillover pressure from a sharply lower wheat market and profit taking in corn. The Midwest weather outlook for the next 2 weeks is offering support. Scattered showers are expected in the northern plains, parts of the central Midwest, and the eastern Corn Belt over the next week. Accumulation is expected to be light and be of very little benefit to soybean crops. Blistering temperatures will move into the Southwestern Corn Belt today and tomorrow. Cooler temperatures are expected early next week, which may provide some relief to crops. Another round of above normal temperatures is forecasted for later next week. Current price levels and crop reports suggest the market is trading a yield between 38-39 bushel/acre. Without cooler and wetter conditions in the next two weeks, soybean crops are susceptible to further yield deterioration. Outside markets were mixed today with the US Dollar trading lower and crude oil sharply lower on the day."

FKLI- Anticipating Higher Low Formation. 

The FBM KLCI rose about 7.41 points to 1,632.35 level amid stronger rally on regional index while the new spot month contract for July went up about 4.50 points to 1,629 level. Both of the equities index are doing positively as currently they are rebounding from previous retracement. Regional sentiment can be improve further as European stocks rose to a four-month high and Spanish and Italian bonds extended a rally on speculation that policy makers will take action to ease Europe's debt crisis, boosting investors confidence on equities market. Even though external cues are getting better, market still need a little time and slightly more recovery to confirm that the uptrend momentum has return. This can be done if the spot month futures contract manage to rose above the cash composite (premium) and overtake above previous Bearish candle at 1,643 level. Else, more Bearish movement is expected to occur if the July dip below short term support trend line around 1,620~1,615 (previously was mentioned at 1,620 level). For today, pivot support level is located around 1,620 while resistance is pegged at 1,634. 

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 1634
R1= 1629
S1= 1622
S2= 1620

FCPO- Break Away Gap, More Upside Eyed

CPO futures surged amid sudden gap up on Soya oil yesterday. Edible oil suddenly have some other reason to surged despite last Friday USDA report showed that large stock piles were reported. But why the prices of palm oil and Soya oil re-act contrary to the report. My initial guess would be Hot, dry weather shrinking the size of the U.S. crop and supportive outside markets such as the commitment of European leaders to avoid debt default would have sparked a fresh inflow of investment money. Maybe the main factors in determining edible oil prices direction was not all about the weather this time, it is about the general market outlook in European capital institution. Fortunately, there is always some explanation on technical analysis. Informed traders will most likely abandon their Short holding (if they have) when the benchmark Oct gapped up above 2,955 level as the immediate resistance trend line has breached. And when a important resistance trend line is breached (from a ranging market) it is known as break out and you definitely do not want to ignore an upside break out because the tendency for the market to keep on rally is significantly higher. Yesterday rally was also known as break away as the market gap up above all previous week highs, marking serious Bullish momentum that will easily most pivot resistance level. Previous Bearish direction is likely reverse its course to positive this week. For today, pivot support is located around 2,973 while resistance is pegged at 3,039.
Daily Pivot Point
R2= 3039
R1= 3022
S1= 2973
S2= 2941
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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