Thursday, April 19, 2012

Market Overview 20th April 2012

Friday, 20th April 2012. The FBM KLCI gave back its gain previous and ended the day as investors are weighting earning news impact on U.S market. Other news to follow.

"- U.S. stocks declined for a second day Thursday, pushing the Nasdaq Composite Index into the loss column for the week, as disappointing economic data and unease over Europe offset positive corporate results.  The Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA -0.53%  fell 68.65 points, or 0.5%, at 12,964.10, leaving it up 0.9% for the week to date.

Up 0.5% from last Friday’s close, the S&P 500 Index SPX -0.59% lost 8.22 points, or 0.6%, at 1,376.92, with technology the worst performing and telecommunications the best among its 10 major sectors. The Nasdaq COMP -0.79%  retreated 23.89 points, or 0.8%, at 3,007.56, off 0.1% for the week, with one session remaining. "
"-Japanese shares fell on Thursday, underperforming the rest of the Asian region, while Hong Kong and Australian stocks staged a mild advance. The Nikkei Stock Average JP:100000018 -0.82%  declined 0.8%, Korea’s KospiKR:0100 -0.23%  traded down 0.2%, and the Shanghai Composite Index CN:000001 -0.09%edged lower by 0.1%. On the plus side, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI +1.03%  rose 1% and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index AU:XJO +0.32%   advanced by 0.3%.European shares fell Wednesday after news of a rise in bad loans in Spain. U.S. shares closed lower as well, after earnings reports dented sentiment toward some technology firms."

"- Oil futures capped a meandering session with a mild loss, dragged lower after worrying snapshots of U.S. jobless claims and manufacturing data in the Philadelphia area. Crude for May delivery CLK2 +0.27% retreated 40 cents, or 0.4%, to $102.27 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. "

"-July Soybeans finished up 7 1/2 at 1421, 14 3/4 off the high and 8 3/4 up from the low.  July Soybean Oil finished down 0.01 at 55.59, 0.6 off the high and 0.17 up from the low. May soybeans closed slightly higher on the session but down sharply from the highs of the day which were posted early. More China buying of US old crop soybeans plus a surge higher in corn sparked renewed buying interest in the soybean market early today. Rumors of China buying old crop corn helped to support. Private exporters reported the sale of 110,000 tonnes of US soybeans to China for the 2011/12 season. Weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 374,300 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 845,000 for the next marketing year for a total of 1.219 million tonnes which was well above trade expectations. Sales of 126,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Net meal sales came in at 300,700 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 1,500 for the next marketing year for a total of 302,200. Sales of 82,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Oil sales were 23,900 metric tonnes which was also well above expectations. Cumulative soybean oil sales stand at 66.2% of the USDA forecast for 2011/2012 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 65.3%. Sales of 7,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. "

FKLI- Still Trapped And Congesting. 

Equity indexes are hovering within ranging market currently and there is no telling how long these market will break out. Investors are still wondering the degree of impact over the earning results news on the west as most of the movement in the morning session are quickly nullified in the afternoon session. Example, a gap up in the morning session for FKLI due to better than expected performance over Dow index is quickly erase in the afternoon session, marking it as a fake rallies. Technically, the significant support and resistance level displayed on hourly chart above is the clue for the next market major movement. Until the index futures manage to breach either on of these area, we are expecting any significant fluctuation inside these range. For today, market is poised to trade higher if there is promising first quarter earning results from U.S market for Bank of America plus other major companies announcing results include Morgan Stanley , Microsoft, Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold  Verizon and DuPont. Apart from that, the U.S Labor department releases first-time claims for jobless benefits for the week ended April 14 at 8:30 a.m. EDT. Economists forecast a total of 370,000 new filings, compared with 380,000 in the prior week.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 1599
R1= 1596
S1= 1590

FCPO- Finally Retrace Below Support Trend Line.

Palm oil futures went down for two successive days starting since previous Wednesday but this time, the benchmark July dropped below the long term support trend line. Fortunately, there was no massive sell-off even though the benchmark July breach below the long term support trend line yesterday but rather a controlled decline throughout the session. Market went down further as expected right after the benchmark month starting to approach 3,460 level yesterday, stopped on 3,439 level as Buyers step in and forced the market to closed just RM2 lower to 3,477. Technically, late afternoon recovery was possible as Buyers step in and took advantage over the oversold condition yesterday. The lower highs formed on daily chart mentioned on previous post are invalid for the moment when the market closed lower yesterday. Market is poised to retrace further judging on recent lower highs and lower lows formed on hourly chart plus higher volume spike when yesterday correction occur. Hence, it is vital for the market to recover as we are expecting further weakness if the benchmark July could not rise above 3,496~3,500 which happen to be the first resistance for today.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 3515
R1= 3496
S1= 3448

 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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