Market Overview 30th Dec 2011

Friday, 30th Dec. Today will be my last write up in this web site for year 2011 and we are just seconds away (actually days) to welcome year 2012. Stock market performance is shaping really well so far, most traders and analyst might agree that the traditional "window dressing" activities towards the end of year remain relevant for more years to come.

"-U.S. stocks climbed Thursday, lifting the S&P 500 back into positive turf for the year, after a report illustrating the U.S. labor market is healing as 2012 approaches. Data from the Labor Department had U.S. jobless claims came in at 381,000, up from 366,000 the prior week. But the four-week moving average fell to 375,000 last week, with fewer Americans filing for jobless benefits during the past month than at any time in the past three years. Recouping nearly all of the prior day’s 140-point fall, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +1.12%   closed at 12,287.04, up 135.63 points, or 1.1%. All 30 of its components gained, with the blue chips up 6.1% for 2011, with one session to go. Up 0.4% for the year, the S&P 500 Index SPX +1.07%   rose 13.38 points, or 1.1%, to 1,263.02, with financial firms pacing gains that including all 10 of its major industry groups. The Nasdaq Composite COMP +0.92%   gained 23.76 points, or 0.9%, to 2,613.74. With one session left for 2011, the index is off 1.5% from the end of 2010."

 "- Asia share markets ended mostly lower Thursday, as concerns about Europe‘s debt crisis kept investors sidelined in a quiet trading session. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI -0.65%  declined 0.7%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index AU:XJO -0.43% fell 0.4%, and Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average JP:NIK -0.29% lost 0.3%. South Korea’s Kospi KR:0100 +0.03%  ended almost flat, while the Shanghai Composite CN:000001 +0.16%  managed to shed early losses to edge up 0.2%."

"-Crude-oil futures closed higher Thursday as concern about Iran’s recent threat to disrupt shipments through a key shipping channel offset pressure from a pair of supply updates that showed U.S. inventories unexpectedly climbed last week. Natural-gas futures declined following a government report showing that last week’s supplies of the fuel fell less than expected. Crude for February delivery CL2G +0.09% added 29 cents, 0.3%, to settle at $99.65 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, having earlier tapped a low of $98.30. Prices fell nearly 2% on Wednesday, a reversal after a six-session rally of more than 8%."

"-US soybean futures end lower as South American weather forecasts eased worries about the crop and prompted profit-taking. Possible rains for southern Brazil this weekend and Argentina late next week prompted traders to extract risk premium from the market. Year-end positioning and profit-taking also dominating trade. Lackluster export demand, and questions about demand above the $12/bushel level also hang over the market. Still, prices up sharply from $11 on Dec 14. Jan. CBOT soy ends down 10 3/4c to $11.87 1/2 a bushel. Products followed soybeans lower with March soymeal down $3.30 to $310.80 per short ton and March soyoil down 0.64c to 51.52c/lb."

FKLI- Temporary Resistance On Previous High. 

Guess what, the spot month index futures does have some difficulties trying to overcome previous weekly high above 1,512 level but that is not the same case for the Jan contract. Next month FKLI contract has been breaching the mentioned previous high above 1,512 level when it closed 6 points higher to 1,514.50 level yesterday. With upcoming new benchmark month for FKLI, the Jan contract has formally break out from the weekly resistance. The possible range for Stock index and index futures are likely hovering within 1,490~1,530, maybe at least until early Jan next year. Technically, the index futures is rallying with full throttle after creating series of higher lows and higher highs (on hourly chart). We are likely to see more upside on the index futures if the market manage to stay above the weekly resistance around 1,512 level next week and if this event materialize, there is some possibilities that new impulsive Bulls might take over that could take us back to previous historical high around 1,595 level. For today, the Jan contract support is located around 1,506 while resistance is pegged around 1,526. Sideways market is expected for this near term due to holiday mood volume.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 1526
R1= 1520
S1= 1506
S2=1497.50

 FCPO- Healthy Correction

CPO futures retrace for the first time after gaining for five sessions straight yesterday along with some mild correction on  Soya oil as well. The most active traded Soya oil contract slipped 0.3150 cents to 51.84 cents lbs during Asia trading session yesterday, 6.10pm +8GMT while the benchmark Mar slide about RM30 to end lower at 3,155. Market needed some healthy retracement (so we can gauge how well it can recover) and it does that yesterday. For this time forward, palm oil price need to overcome its previous high / resistance level above 3,212 level for any confirmation of sustainable positive momentum. Technically, if this happen to be a medium term rally, the benchmark Mar should not retrace lower than 3,059 major support level. The major support figure is compute based on Fibonacci 61.8% retracement ratio. For today, immediate support is located around 3,136 while resistance is pegged at 3,196~3,200 area.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 3196
R1= 3175
S1= 3136
S2=3118
Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.