Tuesday, December 9, 2014

FCPO: There Is Still No Visible Trend, None 9th Dec 2014

Tuesday, 9th Dec 2014. Palm oil futures went down significantly after made it to new high above 2,200. The gains was short lived after it head down to settle at 2,171 yesterday, wiping out most of the gains made earlier. Other news to follow.


"- U.S. stocks suffered their biggest one-day slide in nearly seven weeks on Monday as a withering selloff among energy companies, which closely tracked oil’s continued price slide, dragged down key benchmark indexes. Downbeat economic reports form China, Japan and Europe also dented sentiment. Nervousness among investors was evident from a jump in 10-year Treasury yields, rising five basis points and a 20% jump in the CBOE Vix index, commonly knows as Wall Street’s fear gauge. S&P 500 SPX, -0.73%  closed 15 points, or 0.75, at 2,060.31. Losses were led by energy companies, as the sector dropped 3.9%. Materials, industrials and technology sector stocks also sold off, while defensive sectors such as utilities and health care drew buyers. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.59%  dropped as much as 150 points at session lows, but ended 106.31 points, or 0.6% lower, at 17,852.48. McDonald’s Corp. MCD, -3.84% took a bite out of the blue-chip stock index followingdisappointing sales. Oil giants ExxonMobil Corp. XOM, -2.26%  and Chevron Corp CVX, -3.67%   also weighed on the index, dropping 2.3% and 3.7% respectively. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite COMP, -0.84%  ended the day with a loss of 40 points, or 0.8%, at 4,740.69. The heaviest-weighted component of the index, Apple Inc. AAPL, -2.26%   fell 2.3%."

"- Global oil production is concentrated among a handful of giant producer countries and about a dozen more which produce more than 1 million barrels a day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. For 2013, the U.S. averaged 7.45 million barrels per day of crude oil production, third behind Russia and Saudi Arabia. However, U.S. production has been surging thanks to fracking technologies that free up oil trapped in shale formations. Total U.S. crude oil production averaged 8.9 million barrels per day in October, according to the EIA and is expected to top 9 million barrels a day in December."

"-Palm oil/Vegoils: Market factors to watch Dec 9 Tuesday

KUALA LUMPUR: The following factors are likely to influence Malaysian palm oil futures and other vegetable oil markets on Tuesday.

FUNDAMENTALS
* Malaysian palm oil futures ended lower on Monday after crude markets dived to five-year lows, forcing the tropical oil to give up earlier gains which had
stemmed from the ringgit plunging to its weakest since Sept. 2009. 
* Concerns about tight U.S. soy supplies drove soybean futures to their highest level in more than a week on Monday, while corn futures retreated for the first time in four sessions. 
* Oil dived 4 percent to new five-year lows on Monday, as Wall Street expectations of a deeper price slump next year and a Kuwaiti prediction for $65 crude set off one of the biggest declines this year. 

MARKET NEWS
* U.S. and European stocks fell on Monday after weak Chinese and Japanese data stoked worries about slowing global economic growth, while oil prices sank to five-year lows on expectations of oversupply into 2015."



FCPO- There Are Not Enough Conviction For Any Strong Move


I bet most of the major traders in local commodity and also in other major commodities market are taking a big long holiday break. There reason why I would say that would be the inactivity or less big movement in the FCPO market for the past four to six weeks and this month will be the last month for Dec. Most of the traders I know will be off to clearing leave or just taking a break from trading at this moment, maybe until the start of first quarter of 2015. Maybe that is just my opinion but that "less active" movement pattern in the market has been repeating for the same old time over and over again. Back to the market outlook, we are still likely travelling within a sideways range, there would be less likely any follow thru commitment when the price hit new high or went down to new weekly low. You can expect price went back to previous day close once it make new high or new low for this period. This is also known as sideways market where most traders were just staying on high alert or conservative mode throughout this month and maybe next month as well. For this week, we are likely looking at 2,140 to 2,215 range for the benchmark month. No tale to tell for those who trade by trend, we will just have to suck it up and hope we can survive this sideways market until February 2015. For today, pivot support level is located around 2,147 while resistance is pegged at 2,193.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2,215
R1= 2,193
S1= 2,159
S2= 2,147
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

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