Thursday, September 11, 2014

FCPO: We Are Yet Out Of The Woods 11th Sept 2014

Thursday, 11th Sept 2014. Palm oil futures manage to close at the day high yesterday but the real concern was would it able to rally even though stocks are at multi-year high ? Other news to follow.

"-U.S. stocks rose Wednesday, bouncing back from morning losses, as Apple Inc. and other tech stocks helped lead the way higher. Traders said while there was no single explanation for the turnaround, the market got a lift from Apple’s 3.1% jump and a new poll showing a majority of Scots favor remaining in the U.K. Investors have worried about Scotland potentially becoming independent after a poll over the weekend put those favoring independence ahead for the first time. The S&P 500 SPX, +0.36%   rose 7.25 points, or 0.4%, to close at 1,995.69, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.32%  added 54.84 points, or 0.3%, to 17,068.71. Both indexes snapped two-day skids, but remain down for the week. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.75%  gained 34.24 points, or 0.8%, to finish at 4,586.52. The tech-heavy index is up 0.1% for the week.

"-Hong Kong (MarketWatch) -- Here are the closing levels for Asia's major stock markets: Tokyo (Nikkei Average) up 0.3% ; Hong Kong (Hang Seng Index) down 1.9% ; Shanghai (Shanghai Composite Index) down 0.4% ; Sydney (S&P/ASX 200) down 0.6% ; Taipei (Taiex) down 0.8%."

"-U.S. crude-oil supplies declined by 1 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 5, the Energy Information Administration said Wednesday. That met expectations of analysts polled by Platts, and numbers released late Tuesday by the American Petroleum Institute, a trade group. The EIA also reported gasoline stockpiles were up 2.4 million, and distillates inventories rose 4.1 million barrels. The analysts surveyed by Platts had expected gasoline stocks unchanged and distillate stocks up 400,000 barrels. The report did little to support crude-oil futures trading in New York, however, weighed down by a strong dollar and ongoing concerns of plentiful worldwide supplies. Crude for October delivery CLV4, +0.10% was recently down 1.2% at $91.61 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

FCPO- Data Suggest We Are Still In Bearish Mode

The main headlines for today, "we are yet out of the woods" sounds familiar as I have use this tittle few weeks ago. What the tittle meant was palm oil futures is still running on Bearish steam despite its promising attempt to rally passed certain major resistance level. The market did went passed above weekly resistance level around 2,053 but that rally was short lived when Nov price came crushing down right after it hit 2,068 last Monday. Ironic but that is the fact, the market is yet ready to turn current Bearish trend to Bullish. The Bulls do not want to commit anything that is too high, perhaps 2,068 and above was too high for them to kept Buying. Or maybe these guys know (on last Monday) that the output and stocks level will be announce at record high on yesterday. Even so, it is not a traders job to put much concern about what others might know more than you did. A traders jobs were to apply the knowledge into the trade and follow their plan layout before them or in another words due diligently manage the trade / positions according to the plan. That, is what a good trader is, consistently following his plan trades after trades, giving no attention to news, other says and other element that would influence a trader decision. All that matter would be the price because price is the ultimate indicator that would show where the market is heading next. Back to the palm oil futures outlook, we might not expecting any strong upside above 2,050 for this week as palm oil stocks rose 22% to 2.05 million tons, the highest since October 2009. This news alone would not be a good news for majority of Buyers out there. Fortunately, independent cargo surveyor ITS reported that Malaysia palm oil export for 1-10th Sept vs Oct rose about 41%, a joyful news that have pushed the price to close at day high yesterday. If this rising percentage on export can sustain, we can expect more rallies next week. For today, sideways market action is expected around 2,050 ~ 2,000 level.  

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2059
R1= 2045
S1= 2007
S2= 1983
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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