Tuesday, August 26, 2014

FCPO: First Sign Of Temporary Recovery 26th Aug 2014

Tuesday, 26th Aug 2014. Palm oil futures manage to recover up to 2.045 level amid some help from Soy oil yesterday afternoon. Would this be the sign of further recovery everybody is waiting for ? Other news to follow.

"- The S&P 500 on Monday climbed to a record close just shy of 2,000, as U.S. stocks received a lift from deal activity and hints of more stimulus from the European Central Bank. The S&P 500 SPX, +0.48%  gained 9.52 points, or 0.5%, to end at 1,997.92 after notching an intraday record at 2,001.95. While the benchmark finished under the milestone level of 2,000, it still achieved an all-time closing high for the 29th time this year. All 10 sectors advanced, with financials XLF, +0.87%  and energy XLE, +0.89%performing best. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.44% climbed 75.65 points, or 0.4%, to end at 17,076.87, while the Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.41%  jumped by 18.80 points, or 0.4%, to finish at 4,557.35. The Dow stands 0.4% off its July 16 record close, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq again scored its highest close since March 31, 2000."

"- Here are the closing levels for Asia's major stock markets: Tokyo (Nikkei Average) up 0.5% ; Hong Kong (Hang Seng Index) down 0.2% ; Shanghai (Shanghai Composite Index) down 0.5% ; Sydney (S&P/ASX 200) down 0.2% ; Seoul (Kospi) up 0.2% ; Taipei (Taiex) up 0.1%."

"-CPO Futures Prices Rebound on Stronger Soybean Market
KUALA LUMPUR: Crude palm oil (CPO) futures prices rebounded to close higher yesterday propped up by the strong gain on Chicago soybean market. Phillip Futures derivative product specialist David Ng said the news would provide a fresh catalyst for traders to drive up prices after having experienced a long bearish market recently. Spot month September 2014 was up RM28 to RM2,049 a tonne, October 2014 rose RM37 to RM2,030 a tonne, November 2014 gained RM31 to RM2,030 a tonne and December 2014 increased RM30 to RM2,053 a tonne. Volume rose to 60,811 lots from 48,181 lots on Friday while open interest increased to 309,727 contracts from 294,549 contracts previously. On the physical market, September South was RM30 higher at RM2,060 a tonne from RM2,030 a tonne on Friday. Bernama"


FCPO- We Are Still Yet Out Of The Woods. 


I bet you have read this title before "we are yet out of the woods," as I want to share the outlook that most people would like to hear, that is not what I have in mind for the moment. If you take a closer look at higher time frame chart, yesterday afternoon recovery session was indeed impressive but we are far from reversing this whole Bearish trend in daily chart, or even hourly chart yet. Nothing much has changed for current down trend even with yesterday rally. It might be slightly different story on 15 minutes and 5 minutes chart, where it suggest there would be further recovery if the price manage to go up above 2,045 today, but the Bearish prospectus is still intact on hourly and daily chart. We still need more sessions to determine whether the Bulls are back and willing to stay for some time, at least for another 200 points commitment. And how do we look at that sign ? Any formation of higher lows and higher high on hourly will be a good indication or signs that the Bulls are coming back.And if you are prefer slow time frame such as daily chart and take it easy, you might need to look at price breaking pass some major resistance level such as 2,100 ~ 2,200 level to start with. Higher period of moving average also helps to see whether there is any price breakthrough above the line. All these technique may sound simple to observe, but very tough to execute it, that is what separate the difference between traders A who always want to get it right and traders B who just want to follow their system plan. Which one would you think will be more success months after months ?

Daily Pivot Point
R2=2099
R1=2063
S1=1972
S2=1917
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

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