Thursday, June 5, 2014

FCPO: Houston, We Have A Little Rally 5th Jun 2014

Thursday, 5th Jun 2014. Palm oil futures went up yesterday amid promising recovery from its rival oil and trading at the high around 39.15 cents as the time of writing.

"- The U.S. stock market ended Wednesday with modest gains that sent the benchmark S&P 500 index to a record level for the 16th time this year. Investors appeared to have shrugged off weaker-than-expected economic reports, such as private-sector jobs and trading deficit data. The S&P 500 SPX +0.19% closed near session highs, up 3.62 points, or 0.2%, at 1,927.86. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +0.09%rose 15.19 points, or 0.1%, to 16,737.53. The Nasdaq Composite COMP +0.42% ended the day up 17.56 points, or 0.4%, at 4,251.64."

"- Asia stocks were mostly higher on Tuesday, with Japan closing at the highest level in two months. Following another record close on Wall Street overnight, Japan’s Nikkei AverageJP:NIK +0.23%   settled 0.7% higher, marking a two-month high since early April. The index rallied 2.1% in the previous day. The broader Topix index JP:I0000 +0.01%  also ended up 0.7% on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the dollar was a little weak against the yen, buying ¥102.386 from ¥102.407 in the previous session."

"-Oil futures settled little changed Wednesday, losing hold of the $103-a-barrel level they saw during the session as traders assessed a U.S. government report showing a bigger-than-expected weekly decline in crude supplies, along with rising gasoline and distillate stockpiles.

July crude CLN4 -0.33% shed 2 cents to settle at $102.64 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices, which were trading at around $103.50 before the supply data, had climbed more to touch highs closer to $103.59 immediately after the data release but gave up those gains by the close."

"- India's new govt to avoid palm oil duty hike. India's new government will not raise duties on palm oil in the short-term, despite demands by domestic oilseed processors to cut cheap imports from the world's top producer Indonesia, official sources said on Wednesday.  "India holding to import duty structure will help stabilise Malaysian palm oil prices," Sandeep Bajoria, chief executive of Mumbai-based brokerage Sunvin Group."
FCPO- We Are Likely Looking At Temporary Rebound



Before I start talking about market outlook and plan for this week trade, allow me to speak briefly about "trading better." New and even seasoned traders come and goes from day to day, some did better, some did their worse. To put it in simple terms, the trader who did their worse was the one who does not have any plan or system to follow at all, or even worse they just follow it half way, and second guessing the rest of the day. What you can do to trade better than anyone else would be, design and back test your system or game plan tailored for that market, and religiously follow it, exercise what your system demand you to without any prejudice. You may win or lose some time, but you are giving a fair chance for that system to work and believe me it will work eventually.
Palm oil price have more tendency to recover soon judging on the price action of benchmark Aug yesterday. August contract manage to record series of recovery right from 2,395 all the way  to 2,432 level, signalling more potential to recovery this week when its rival oil- Soy oil topped 39.15 cents per pound this morning. We are likely to expect 10 to 20 points gap up today if there is no surprise downfall on Soy oil on today's opening bell. The major downtrend that have brought palm oil benchmark contract down to 2,375 previously, might have spark immediate Buying interest on the spot market, temporary supporting market from falling too swift. Long term downtrend momentum remain intact unless the benchmark August manage to break above psychological resistance level 2,500 this week, which is unlikely. Short term and medium term perspective will be gearing towards temporary recovery with 2,500 as first cap. Although we are not sure whether there will be any significant recovery in upcoming palm oil export data, rumor about increase demand in spot market is all we need to see 30 to 60 points recovery from yesterday 2,434 level. The game plan for this week will be Buy when the benchmark August retrace close to first pivot support level and place stop loss below that support level.
For today, pivot support level is located at 2,381 while resistance is pegged at 2,459.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2459
R1= 2446
S1= 2381
S2= 2368

 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

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