Thursday, May 15, 2014

FCPO: Impending Upside 15th May 2014

Thursday,15th May 2014. Palm oil surge above its ten sessions resistance level, pointing at more possible upside this week. Other news to follow.

"- The U.S. stock market closed broadly lower on Wednesday, as investors turned cautious amid a selloff of small and high-growth companies. The benchmark S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated from record levels set on Tuesday The S&P 500 SPX -0.47%  finished 8.92 points, or 0.5% lower at 1,888.53. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -0.61%  broke its five-day winning streak and closed 101.47. points, or 0.6%, lower at 16,613.97. The Nasdaq Composite COMP -0.72%  ended the day down 29.54 points, or 0.7%, at 4,100.63."

"-Shares in China rallied Monday as investors cheered Beijing’s new blueprint for capital-market reforms aimed at boosting regulatory transparency and widening market access. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index CN:SHCOMP -0.14%  ended up 2.1% at 2052.87, its biggest daily percentage-point rise since Mar. 21, when it added 2.7%. The index has lost a total of 3% since the start of the year, following a decline of 6.8% for the whole of last year."

"- Oil prices headed toward their highest close in more than three weeks on Wednesday, finding support from expectations of stronger demand during the summer-driving season and continued turmoil in Ukraine, even as a weekly U.S. government report showed a modest, but unexpected climb in crude inventories. Crude oil for June delivery CLM4 -0.34%  was last up 71 cents, or 0.7%, to $102.41 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. If prices close around this level, that will mark the highest settlement for a most-active contract since April 21."

FCPO- Early Sign Of Upside, Early But Reliable

You would wonder why "there is more upside for this week", and not for longer term. The reason behind was we still sitting within Bears territory for long term picture unless the benchmark month break above 2,700 level, again. There is concrete reason why we should take this short term upside potential this or coming next week as I am foresee this rally could take us close 2,699 ~ 2,700 area before it fall back again. If the export figures continue to improve, we should expect the benchmark month to continue rising for another three to four sessions. Shipments for palm oil is likely to go up for the May due to upcoming Ramadhan festive occasion. Nonetheless, do not expect the export data improve constantly with double digit, it may deteriorate as the month end draws near. Technically, price action is indeed Bullish for the moment when the benchmark July (going to be new benchmark month- August on 16th May 2014) formed a nice U shape and rallied passed above ten sessions resistance level around 2,608. It is not something that is guaranteed that the benchmark July will continue going up again, but this kind of U shape rally, likely signifies confidence Buying force and backed by constant Buying interest. U shape price formation was also a popular chart pattern that appear before the market change its role from Bearish to Bullish. In this case, it would be a short term role changed if the benchmark July continue to rally up to 2,640~2,650 area today.
Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2625
R1= 2614
S1= 2592
S2= 2581
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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