FCPO: Palm Oil Rebound Despite Weak Export

Tuesday, 17th  Dec 2013. Palm oil futures went up instead of continuing its weakness after it correct close to 4 weeks low yesterday. Other news to follow.

 "-U.S. stocks closed higher on Monday, with the S&P 500SPX +0.63% halting a four-session losing streak. The S&P 500 gained 11.22 points, or 0.6%, to 1,786.54, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +0.82% jumped 129.21 points, or 0.8%, to 15,884.57. The Nasdaq Composite COMP +0.71% climbed 28.54 points, or 0.7%, to 4,029.52. All three main indexes scored their biggest up days since Dec. 6. The Dow and Nasdaq have advanced for two sessions in a row. Equities were helped by upbeat European manufacturing data and a stronger-than-expected report on U.S. industrial production, although manufacturing conditions in the New York region didn't pick up as much as expected. "

"-Hong Kong shares fell Monday after data showed Chinese factory activity slowed this month.

The blue chip Hang Seng Index closed down 131.30 points, or 0.6%, to 23114.66 after trading between 22999.76 and 23204.63. Volume fell to HK$54.67 billion (US$7.05 billion) from HK$60 billion on Friday. Mainland shares listed in Hong Kong responded with a steeper decline than the broader market. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index declined 0.9% to 10932.27."

"-Oil futures finished higher on Monday with political unrest in North African oil producer Libya lifting prices back above $97 a barrel ahead of a decision by Federal Reserve officials due later this week on the central bank’s stimulus program.

January crude oil CLF4 -0.15%  added 88 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $97.48 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices Friday had lost 0.9% to tally a decline of 1.1% for that week."

FCPO- Soy Oil Asian Time Recovery Spur Palm Oil Rally. 

The new benchmark March recovered about RM21 to 2,581 yesterday when the price of Soy oil went up to 40.00 cents per pound on afternoon session, Malaysia time. That might be the only reason I can think of for yesterday rally for palm oil futures. Fundamental side remain grim as export plunge about 12% ~ 14% reported by cargo surveyors SGS and ITS, while production is expected to remain active. On the technical side, most of the indicator are still showing negative direction on slower time frame such as hourly and daily chart. Plenty of opportunities awaits on faster time frame such as 15 minutes and 5 minutes. The first indication for market possible rallies was shown first on 5 minutes when the benchmark March blow past above 2,557 level and kept on heading to 2,584 level throughout yesterday trading session. Meanwhile for 15 minutes time frame, trader can identify that the promising rally does come noticeable when the benchmark March hit above 2,567 level. But bear in mind it does not always rainbow and sunshine going Long on this kind of price rally (or going Short if price tumble) as there might be not enough juice for it to move further, especially when it is ranging on medium term. For today, more upside is expected if the benchmark March could rally above 2,586 level or more correction if the March contract go down below 2,572 level.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2605
R1= 2593
S1= 2559
S2= 2537
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.