Tuesday, October 22, 2013

Palm Oil Futures Set To Rally, Within The Range 22nd Oct 2013

Tuesday, 22nd Oct 2013. Yes, you heard it right, palm oil positive momentum would only valid on short and medium term for the moment. The benchmark month is still travelling within a big ranging session on long term time frame. Other news to follow.

"- U.S. stocks finished little changed on Monday, with the S&P 500 pausing from its record climb and theNasdaq Composite extending gains into a fourth session, bolstered by Netflix Inc.NFLX +11.23% , which rallied ahead of its earnings report, delivered after the close. TheDow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -0.05% fell 7.45 points to 15,392.2. The S&P 500 indexSPX +0.01% rose a fraction to 1,744.66. The Nasdaq Composite COMP +0.15% added 5.77 points to 3,920.05. "

"-Hong Kong stocks opened higher Monday following gains for U.S. shares on Friday, with financials among the strong spots. The Hang Seng Index HK:HSI +0.42% traded 0.5% higher at 23,459.30 in early moves, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index also up 0.5%. On the Chinese mainland, the Shanghai Composite CN:SHCOMP +1.62% slipped 0.1% after a higher open. "

"-Oil futures settled below $100 a barrel on Monday at their lowest level since early July, after U.S. government data showed that stockpiles of crude rose more than expected for the week ended Oct. 11, marking a fourth-straight week of rising inventories. Crude for November delivery CLX3 -0.17% fell $1.59, or 1.6%, to settle at $99.22 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. "

"-November Soybeans finished up 12 at 1303 1/4, 3/4 off the high and 14 3/4 up from the low. January Soybeans closed up 10 3/4 at 1300 1/2. This was 13 1/2 up from the low and 3/4 off the high. December Soymeal closed up 5.6 at 415.7. This was 8.5 up from the low and 0.6 off the high. December Soybean Oil finished down 0.04 at 41.64, 0.45 off the high and 0.04 up from the low. November soybeans closed 12 cents higher on the session and closed at the highest level since September 27th. A surge up in meal with oil holding mostly unchanged helped to support the solid gains. Solid demand news offset more talk of active harvest. Talk of high yields and active harvest has been offset by active demand news. Private exporters this morning reported 235,000 tonnes of US soybeans were sold to unknown destination for the 2013/14 season. Weekly export inspections for the week of October 17th came in at a whopping 59.32 million bushels (1.615 million tonnes) as compared with 26.2 million bushels needed each week to reach the USDA projection for the year. Traders believe this afternoon's weekly crop progress report will show harvest near 62% complete."

FCPO- Still Trap In Long Term Perspective

Equity market should be on the running to rally further judging on various earning results that will be announced for the third quarter. And with festive season such as Deepavali and Christmas to look forward to, commodities prices are likely picking up based on better demand anticipation. For palm oil futures, price for the benchmark month is likely staying positive for now judging on steady export figures so far and decreasing stockpiles number last month. But how things are getting on in the longer term perspective, not much progress actually. The benchmark Jan is still hovering within a range if you look at daily chart shown above. Oh yes, we are still yet out of the hole for any long term Bullish outlook for palm oil futures. Price can still take a dive if Soy oil choose to go down from here. Good news is, the outlook for medium term is still positive with the benchmark month continue to create higher low and higher high on hourly chart. Market is still susceptible for a choppy trading session if the market gap up above 15 points in the opening. Apart from that, palm oil fundamental remain positive as reported on MPOB. Palm oil export gained 3 percent to 1.026 millions ton in the first half of this month, ITS said on Oct. 21. Reserves dropped 32 percent to 1.78 million tons last month from a record 2.63 million tons in December, data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board report. For today, pivot point support for the Jan contract is located around  

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2461
R1= 2449
S1= 2421
S2= 2405
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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