Thursday, August 22, 2013

Staying At The High For FCPO Due To Positive Demand 22th Aug 2013

Thursday, 22th Aug 2013. Palm oil continue to show strength to recover further, index futures in the other hand getting hit by regional economy woes. Other news to follow.

"- U.S. stocks ended sharply lower Wednesday, losing grip on a late-afternoon recovery, as investors weighed the Federal Reserve’s signaling that it remained on course to curb its monthly bond purchases by the end of the year. Extending losses into a sixth session, the Dow industrials DJIA -0.70%   fell as much as 122.15 points in the immediate of the Fed release, only to repeal those losses and then resume them. Finishing below 15,000 for the first time since July 3, the Dow ended at 14,897.55, down 105.44 points, or 0.7%. The S&P 500 index SPX -0.58%   lost 9.55 points, or 0.6%, to 1,642.80, with utilities and telecommunications the worst performing of its major sectors, all of which closed lower."

"- Asian stocks dropped Thursday after the Federal Reserve indicated it remained on course to reduce the size of its monetary stimulus by the end of the year, with the region’s exporters and resource shares leading the decline. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average  fell 1.1%, South Korea’s Kospi  lost 1.5%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200  gave up 1.2%, with investors also looking ahead to a preliminary reading on manufacturing activity in China — a key trading partner for the entire region."

"-November Soybeans finished up 13 1/2 at 1304, 15 off the high and 18 1/2 up from the low. January Soybeans closed up 13 3/4 at 1305 1/2. This was 18 up from the low and 14 1/2 off the high.

December Soymeal closed up 6.1 at 408.1. This was 8.2 up from the low and 4.9 off the high. December Soybean Oil finished down 0.01 at 43.17, 0.53 off the high and 0.12 up from the low. Soybean futures traded higher on the day with early gains led by the new crop market but September soybeans fought their way back at the close with active bull spreading in the Sept/Nov spread. The market continues to add risk premium as many feel the US production potential is up in the air at this point given the late season planting, cool weather, and dry forecast going forward. Weather leans bullish with warmer conditions in the heart of the Midwest into next week and forecasts show limited rainfall with the exception of some areas in the northern tier of the Corn Belt. Basis levels for old crop are slowly creeping lower on light farmer sales but crush margins are beginning to sink lower as meal premiums soften. Crush downtime is expected to edge higher into September and October just ahead of the new crop harvest. World production for oilseeds points bearish and Statistics Canada estimated that Canadian canola production would come in at 14.735 million tonnes, up from 13.219 in 2012. The estimate fell just short of trader estimates but there was some talk that production could increase from here if weather remains favorable. Meal and oil were trading higher at the midpoint of the session but oil closed lower on the day."


FCPO- Palm Oil Positive Export Help Kept The Price Floating Above 2,300 Area.


Yes we are still running on positive momentum despite some aftershock retracement occur on last Tuesday, sending most of the short term Long holder to cover their positions. The big retracement occur was probably due to in-ability for the new Buyers to sustain price from falling as most of the Long positions holders book their profit, forcing the palm oil price to come down swiftly. Fortunately, most of the Bearish price action was quickly rectify when palm oil price manage to recover back up to 2,340 at the closed of yesterday session. Words out that the weakening Ringgit help to boost export for palm oil as consumer from China, India and Europe can import cheaper palm oil. Cargo surveyors reported that the 1-20th Aug vs July 2013 was up about average 11%, lifting up the demand for the month of Aug. Technically, the benchmark Nov positive momentum remain intact judging on how well the price manage to recover closed to its previous high yesterday and not only that, there is another higher low formed on hourly chart when then price manage to cover up the gap down from 2,313 to 2,306 occur on last Tuesday. For today, pivot support for the benchmark Nov is located around 2,316 followed by 2,299 while resistance is pegged at 2,345.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2357
R1= 2345
S1= 2316
S2= 2299
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

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