Monday, July 29, 2013

Late Recovery May Spark More Rallies This Week 29th July 2013

Monday, 29th July 2013. It would not be easy task for the price to go up that easily as both palm oil demand and stockpiles are the main obstacle for the price to recover for the moment. Other news to follow.

"-U.S. stocks eased their losses Friday after the release of the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment for July. The gauge of public sentiment reportedly rose to 85.1 in July from 84.1 the prior month. Down more than 70 points ahead of the release, theDow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +0.02% was more recently off 65.76 points, or 0.4%, at 15,489.85. The S&P 500 index SPX +0.08% lost 6.01 points, or 0.3%, to 1,684.24. The NasdaqComposite COMP +0.22% declined 9.58 points, or 0.3%, to 3,595.55."

"- Stocks in Hong Kong and Shanghai fell Friday amid lingering worries over China's economic slowdown, with banks and property developers slipping while railway shares pulled back to give back some of the gains they recorded the previous session. The Hang Seng Index HK:HSI +0.31% slipped 0.1% to 21,881.10 and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index lost 0.3%, while the Shanghai Composite IndexCN:SHCOMP -0.51% declined 0.5%."

"- Oil futures closed at a two-week low Friday as they suffered their first weekly loss in five weeks amid concerns about a slowdown in Chinese growth. Crude oil for September deliveryCLU3 -0.95% declined 79 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $104.70 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after trading as low as $103.90. The contract hasn’t closed at a level that low since July 11."

"-August Soybeans finished down 5 1/2 at 1349 3/4, 10 1/2 off the high and 19 1/4 up from the low. November Soybeans closed up 4 1/2 at 1228 1/2. This was 21 1/4 up from the low and 3 off the high. August Soymeal closed down 17.5 at 430.3. This was 2.5 up from the low and 24.3 off the high. August Soybean Oil finished down 0.23 at 43.58, 0.4 off the high and 0.24 up from the low. The oilseed market attempted to recover from the sharp losses seen this week in the overnight session but just after the opening bell today, August meal sank limit down but quickly recovered and settled just off the session lows. August soybeans spent the session in negative territory while the new crop contract probed higher. The soft cash market continues to be the foundation for the bearish action this week with meal buyers backing away from the market and cash traders running for cover as they are overrun with soybean cash sales. Weather leans bearish for new crop market sentiment with showers drifting across NE, IA, and MO overnight and this morning. Many areas saw a steady dose of moisture that will replenish stable soil moisture levels and improve the deficiencies is some of the drier regions. Temperatures remain non-threatening and perhaps even a bit too cool for some areas to the north, specifically MN. The bulls saw a bit of good news this morning after the USDA announced a 220,000 tonne soybean sale to China for the 2013/14 marketing year but this failed to spur on much excitement in the trade given the souring nearby cash market sentiment."

FCPO- Temporary Recovery Is On The Way, Not That Fast.


Palm oil futures went up on the last minute before it end its session last Friday. The late buying spike kicks in when the price starting to recover above intraday high and fuel subsequent rallies. Price was negative throughout the week when market dipped to nine month on stockpiles and demand concern. But things starting to look less bearish when the export figures for 1-25th July vs June period only dropped about 6% instead double digit declined. The lower than expected dropped in demand somehow provide some support to curb the price to dropped further when the benchmark Oct suddenly gap down on second session. Rather than expecting any major trend reversal for this week, bear in mind that we are yet out of any Bears control yet as previous Friday rallies is likely turn out to be a technical rebound. Technically, last Friday late session recovery was the first sign for the palm oil futures to recover further today if it manage to open higher. Else the benchmark Oct is going to return into Bearish price action again if it open lower than previous Friday close. For today, the benchmark Oct is likely to open lower judging on weaker Soy oil closing value on previous Friday. Soy Oil for August contract once again closing 0.23 lower at 43.58, painting a Bearish outlook for today's trade theme. 

Daily Pivot Point
R2=2220
R1=2199
S1=2147
S2=2116
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

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