Friday, April 19, 2013

First Sign Of Recovery on Commodity Futures 19th April 2013

Friday, 19th April 2013. Yesterday swift rally some how temporary deny the Bears domination for a moment, the recovery was made possible amid recent substantial rally on Soy oil. Other news to follow.

"- U.S. stocks fell for a second consecutive session Thursday as the busiest day yet for first-quarter earnings yielded disappointments from online auctioneer eBay Inc. and insurer UnitedHealth Group Inc.

The S&P 500 index SPX -0.67% lost 10.40 points, or 0.7%, to 1,541.61, with technology pacing losses and telecommunications faring best of its 10 major sectors. The Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA -0.56% fell 81.45 points, or 0.6%, to 14,537.14. The Nasdaq Composite COMP -1.20% shed 38.31 points, or 1.2%, to end at 3,166.36, its lowest level since the end of February."

"- Most Asian stocks rose Wednesday as a higher finish overnight for U.S. equities and gold prices encouraged buyers, and with Japanese shares rebounding after a three-day losing streak as the yen weakened. Stocks in Hong Kong and Shanghai dropped amid worries about the strength of the economic recovery in China. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 AU:XJO +0.19% gained 1.1% while South Korea’s KospiKR:SEU -0.51% and Taiwan’s TaiexXX:Y9999 +0.95%   edged 0.1% higher each. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI -0.26% fell 0.5% for its fourth straight day of losses, and the Shanghai Composite IndexCN:000001 +0.17%  eased 0.1%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average JP:NIK -0.20% jumped 1.2%."

"-May Soybeans finished up 8 1/4 at 1430 1/2, 11 off the high and 11 1/2 up from the low. July Soybeans closed up 10 at 1390. This was 14 3/4 up from the low and 9 3/4 off the high.
May Soymeal closed up 3.7 at 411.0. This was 4.1 up from the low and 6.2 off the high. May Soybean Oil finished up 0.27 at 49.66, 0.42 off the high and 0.56 up from the low. May soybeans traded higher into the closing bell but closed well off session highs from early this morning. Bull spreads worked to the upside again today on tight crush supply pipelines in the US and Argentina. Meal demand remains strong and export sales were supportive to the oilseed market today. Net weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 339,400 tonnes for the current marketing year and 227,400 for the next marketing year for a total of 566,800 tonnes. As of April 11th, cumulative sales stand at 99.7% of the USDA forecast for the current marketing year vs. a 5 year average of 91%. Sales of 5,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast; this is down from 20,700 tonnes the week prior. The USDA announced this morning that China bought 252,000 tonnes of US soybeans for the 2013/14 marketing year. China continues to be an active buyer for the new crop marketing year as it attempts to build their strategic reserves. Net meal sales came in at 266,000 tonnes for the current marketing year and 49,200 for the next marketing year for a total of 315,200. As of April 11th, cumulative meal sales stand at 99% of the USDA forecast vs. a 5 year average of 73%. Sales of 4,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast, down from 14,000 tonnes the week prior. Crush capacity is set to slow down by the end of this month and into early April which has prompted concern on where global buyers will fill their meal needs if Argentina crush supply does not pick up soon. Net oil sales came in at 8,200 tonnes for the current marketing year and cumulative oil sales stand at 80% of the USDA forecast vs. a 5 year average of 68%. Sales of 9,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

FCPO- Going To Look At This Rally Closely. 

There will be market recovery in any down trend and pull back in any uptrend. No trend is made the same way they use to be previously, there will be some collective force that will push it up when it has dropped too low or push it down if the price has gone up too high. Now, any effort relying too much on price prediction would only did more harm to your trading performance. In other words, you cannot in any way accurately predicted the price would go there or here at some particular level unless you are Nostradamus. You can make guesses but not certainty. Technically, yesterday swift rally was mostly due to oversold reading occur on hourly chart. Bargain hunters make their move when the benchmark July dropped closed to 4 months low, forcing most of the Short holders to cover their position when the market rose above 2,285 level. We are likely to expect recent soy oil rally will provide support for the market to recover temporary. For today, pivot support for the benchmark July 2,246 while resistance is pegged at 2,346.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2346
R1= 2327
S1= 2277
S2= 2246
Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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