Tuesday, April 23, 2013

FCPO Making New Low, Election Closing In 23rd April 2013

Tuesday, 23rd April 2013. Palm oil futures dip lower yesterday as demand data is poised to be another disappointing report, due 25th April this week. Other news to follow.

"- U.S. stocks climbed Monday, with the S&P 500 indexSPX +0.47% rebounding from its largest weekly hit in five months, as investors awaited quarterly earnings from the technology sector and Caterpillar Inc. CAT +2.83% reported Chinese production to be increasing. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +0.14% climbed 19.66 points to 14,567.17. The S&P 500 index added 7.25 points to 1,562.50. The Nasdaq Composite COMP +0.86% advanced 27.50 points to 3,233.55."

"- Japanese shares jumped to lead Asian markets by a big margin Monday, with the yen falling as investors interpreted a statement from Group of 20 nation officials as offering the international community’s support for Tokyo’s economic stimulus. Elsewhere in the region, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 AU:XJO +0.81% gained 0.7%, South Korea’s Kospi KR:SEU -0.21% climbed 1%, Taiwan’s Taiex XX:Y9999 +0.50% added 0.5%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI +0.14% edged 0.1% higher.

On the downside, the Shanghai Composite CN:000001 -0.11%  slipped 0.1% to give back some of the gains that it recorded last week despite steep losses for global commodity prices and some concerns about China’s economic growth trajectory."

"-Oil futures , with the May contract tacking on 0.9% on its expiration day. May crude CLK3 +0.91% settled at $88.76 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 75 cents, rebounding a bit from a loss of nearly 4% last week."

"-May Soybeans finished down 11 at 1417 1/4, 9 1/2 off the high and 9 1/4 up from the low. July Soybeans closed down 17 1/2 at 1365. This was 6 1/2 up from the low and 15 1/2 off the high.
May Soymeal closed down 2.4 at 410.0. This was 2.3 up from the low and 2.5 off the high. May Soybean Oil finished down 0.54 at 48.62, 0.46 off the high and 0.25 up from the low. May soybeans traded sharply lower on the day with the July contract leading the downside advance. Technical profit taking in futures and the July/November calendar spread helped to push the market lower. November soybeans finally broke $12.00 this morning, triggering sell stops along the way. Firm interior basis bids continue to keep the market supported on setbacks but expectations for a huge rebound in global supply by late this summer to October is adding pressure long term. Export inspections were reported at 4.97 million bushels as compared with trader estimates of 7 million bushels, and just above week ago levels of 4.81 million. The data fell below the 5.6 million bushels needed each week to hit the USDA export estimate and cumulative shipments are running at 92% of the estimate vs. the 5 year average of 83%. The pace of shipments continues to run well behind the current sales pace which suggests sales cancellations could be on the way or sales may roll into the 2013/14 marketing year. Vessel lineups in Brazil continue to be huge but shipments are being made which is slowing the pace out of the US. The USDA announced this morning that US private exporters sold 174,000 tonnes of soybeans to China for the 2013/14 marketing year."

FKLI- Polling Date Coming, Market Participants Await.


Index futures is likely travelling lower when the polling date approaches. Uncertainties and possible  political chaotic or unrest would dampen the stock market to rally. And this major political event will be the main headlines for the market to move coming these few weeks. Traders are advised not the hold long term positions over the weekend or overnight, especially few days before the polling date and after the polling results announced. Keep most of the trade short term or intraday if possible to avoid any unfavourable shock that is likely to happen overnight. It is the time to be slightly conservative for this and for the upcoming month in May rather than ignore the present uncertainties and hold substantial positions during the poll date and after the poll results announced. From technical perspective, the Bulls are having some difficulties rallying further due to previous Bearish engulfing candle on 12th April and yesterday Bearish Marubozu candle when the market dip down from 1,705 to 1,699.50 level. Bears are likely controlling the tempo for the moment due to cautious trading session prior to general election date. For today, pivot support for April contract is located around 1,693 level while resistance is pegged at 1,709.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 1,709
R1= 1,704
S1= 1,696
S2= 1,693

FCPO- Bears Are Here To Stay

Market continue to dip even after it attempt to recover from yesterday open gap down on morning session. Bears are in total control both in short and medium term, think twice if you would want to hold your Long positions overnight because further weakness is expected to take place as market closed on new low yesterday. Technically, more and more lower highs and lower lows have been formed throughout the entire hourly chart shown above. There is still no telling where does the Bears would stop mauling the price down, no sign of Bulls stepping into the market yet. But we do have a strong hint that the benchmark July is likely getting strong and prominent support around 2,225~2,220 level. These would be the last defence line for the price to get support and rebound like nobody business. But if the Bears manage to cross below this major support, palm oil benchmark month can easily went down below 2,000 level as well. This major support will turn out to be at least 52 weeks support level and it should at any rate of Selling pressure sustain price from falling further. For this week, further weakness is likely continue judging from recent lower lows formed on hourly chart above. Today, pivot support for the July contract is located around 2,230 while resistance is pegged at 2,275.


Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2,294
R1= 2,275
S1= 2,243
S2= 2,230


 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

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