Thursday, April 25, 2013

FCPO Getting Lift From Soy Oil Rally 25th April 2013

Thursday, 25th April 2013. Palm oil futures rally recently amid stronger than expected recovery made in Soy oil earlier Tuesday this week. Other news to follow.

"- The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average fell for the first session in four on Wednesday, dragged lower by steep declines for Procter & Gamble Co. and AT&T Inc.

The S&P 500 index SPX +0.0006% —a broad measure of the stock market—erased its gains during the last minutes of the trading session, ending at 1,578.79 compared to Tuesday’s close of 1,578.78. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -0.29% fell 43.16 points, or 0.3%, to end at 14,676.30, with 15 of its 30 components in the red."

"- Asian markets tracked a solid lead from Wall Street to rally on Wednesday, with Japanese stocks climbing amid expectations for improved earnings growth while Australian shares gained as quarterly inflation data raised hopes for another rate cut.
Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average JP:NIK +0.13%  soared 2.3%, Taiwan’s Taiex XX:Y9999 -0.17%rose 1% and South Korea’s Kospi KR:SEU +0.13%  climbed 0.9%. The Shanghai Composite CN:000001 +1.55%finished 1.6% higher after a tentative start and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng IndexHK:HSI +1.73%  advanced 1.7%, with both staging a rebound after suffering steep losses in the wake of HSBC data Tuesday, showing that Chinese manufacturing activity cooled in April. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 AU:XJO +1.72% rose 1.7% for its fourth straight day of advance."

"-Oil futures rose Wednesday, settling above $90 a barrel for their highest close in nearly two weeks, after the U.S. government reported an increase in crude supplies that was smaller than expected along with a big decline in gasoline stockpiles. Crude for June delivery CLM3 +0.20%  jumped $2.25, or 2.5%, to settle at $91.43 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange."

"-May Soybeans finished down 15 3/4 at 1404, 22 off the high and 2 up from the low. July Soybeans closed down 13 1/4 at 1345 1/4. This was 4 1/4 up from the low and 19 1/4 off the high.
July Soymeal closed down 7.3 at 390.6. This was 0.4 up from the low and 9.2 off the high. July Soybean Oil finished up 0.49 at 48.9, 0.03 off the high and 0.67 up from the low. Thoughts that more acreage will shift to soybeans this spring due to delays in corn planting helped to pressure November soybeans today but the old crop contracts led the market to the downside along with soybean meal. The July/November traded down sharply on profit taking and due to rumors that the US could be close to importing soybeans or meal soon. The USDA announced this morning that US private exports sold 116,000 tonnes of US soybeans to an "unknown" destination for the 2013/14 marketing year. Many in the trade suspect that the sale was made to China after 566,000 tonnes were sold to them between Monday and Tuesday for the same time period. Cash bids remain extremely firm with Decatur, IL paying 105 over the July contract. CIF bids backed off slightly on light export demand interest for old crop bushels. Soybean oil led the oilseed complex to the upside on short covering after the July contract hit a new low for 2013 yesterday and due to a more supportive tone in the Malaysian Palm Oil market overnight. Statistics Canada estimated Canadian canola planting next crop year at 19.133 million acres, down from 21.531 a year ago, and below market estimates of 20.30 million."

FCPO- Temporary Recovery Tracking On Soy Oil Rally

Palm oil futures is likely tracking recent recovery made in Soy oil soon, but weak fundamental might curb price surge. Tracking recent rally by Soy oil, the benchmark July manage t surge passed 2,300 level yesterday, marking the Bulls are back to business, short term basis. The overall background for any palm oil significant uptrend rally remain uncertain based on negative fundamental. Demand is still pending to go up while stockpiles is still sitting on record high level as production is increasing gradually. For this week, most of the rallies that might take place is going to regard as temporary recovery in downtrending market. On contrary, market might reverse its Bearish role if there is Bullish candle formation such as higher high and higher low pattern formed on hourly chart above. Else, we are likely to see down side resume if the benchmark July starting to retrace rapidly after hitting 2,320~2,325 resistance area. For today, pivot support for the benchmark July is located around 2,265 while resistance is pegged at 2,325~2,328.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2328
R1= 2309
S1= 2265
S2= 2240
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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