Tuesday, March 12, 2013

Bulls Come Out To Play 12th March 2013

Tuesday, 12th March 2013. Index futures headed for its weekly high recently as election fear subside while palm oil futures is attempting to rebound from previous Low around 2,367.

"- U.S. stocks furthered their record climb on Monday, bringing the S&P 500 within nine points of an all-time high and the Dow industrials extending their longest winning run in nearly a year. The S&P 500 index SPX +0.32%  added 5.04 points, or 0.3%, to 1,556.22, leaving it around nine points from its closing high of 1,565.15, hit in October 2007. After hitting an all-time high last week on a better-than-expected monthly jobs report, the Dow industrials DJIA +0.35% on Monday chalked up another record finish, its fifth in a row, after climbing for a seventh consecutive session to end at 14,447.29, up 50.22 points, or 0.4%. The winning streak is the longest since March 15, 2012. The Nasdaq 
Composite index COMP +0.26%  added 8.51 points, or 0.3%, to end at 3,252.87."

"Asia stocks traded mostly higher Monday as investors reacted to U.S. and Chinese data, with Tokyo managing outperform the rest of the region on further weakness for the Japanese yen.

Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average JP:100000018 +0.56%  ended 0.5% higher, with Tokyo’s broader Topix benchmark rallying 1.9%. Meanwhile, Taiwan’s Taiex XX:Y9999 +0.08% , and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI +0.13%  each climbed 0.3% in late trading, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index AU:XJO -0.10%  closed with a 0.5% gain. On the downside, the Shanghai Composite Index CN:000001 -0.16%  dipped 0.3% in late-session moves, while South Korea’s Kospi KR:SEU +0.05% .edged down 0.2% ahead of the close."

"- Oil futures staged a late-session turnaround Monday, scoring a minor gain to finish above $92 a barrel for the first time this month. April crudeCLJ3 0.00% tacked on 11 cents, or 0.1%, to settle at $92.06 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices had spent the bulk of the session trading lower after weak Chinese economic data dulled the outlook for energy demand, but found support to regain lost ground as the dollar index DXY +0.05% fell toward the session's low and as U.S. equities continued higher."

"-May Soybeans finished up 9 1/4 at 1480 1/4, 3 3/4 off the high and 13 up from the low. July Soybeans closed up 7 1/2 at 1454 3/4. This was 11 3/4 up from the low and 4 3/4 off the high.
May Soymeal closed up 3.3 at 438.5. This was 5.6 up from the low and 1.4 off the high. May Soybean Oil finished up 0.11 at 50.45, 0.23 off the high and 0.29 up from the low. May soybeans traded higher on the day despite export inspections that came in at the low end of market estimates. Shipments for the week ending March 7th totaled 17.1 million bushels, down from 40.3 the week prior. This was the lowest shipment pace since the weekend ending September 20th. Shipments needed each week to hit the USDA export forecast are now 7.1 million bushels, down from 7.5 the week prior. The cumulative shipment pace is now 87% of the USDA export estimate vs. the 5 year average of 72%. The slowdown in the shipment pace is seen as a short term negative to price direction as it signals that shipments in Brazil are beginning to pick up. There continues to be rumors in the market that shipments are being switched from South America to the US which is adding support on setbacks in the futures market. Traders noted that the basis on the river was steady to firm on steady demand. The USDA reported this morning that the 345,000 tonne soybean sale to China on March 5th for the 2012/13 marketing year was actually 225,000 tonnes of new crop soybeans and 120,000 tonnes of new crop corn."

FKLI- Going Uphill With No Sign Of Stopping Yet.

The Bulls mean business now as the index futures and stock index kept on going higher after it went above previous weekly resistance level at 1,640. Despite economy and political uncertainties in the Europe, the Bulls relentlessly heading up contrary to that condition. This may reflect that our local market probably shielded from external cues for the moment. Some may agree that the stock market was able to make such gain because of U.S stock index that went up record high this week, but the most likely reason behind this rally would be subsiding election tension. Market participants are willing to risk more as there were still time for the government to dissolve parliament next month. Technically, this rally was clear cut positive momentum from previous upside break out. Market is likely heading along with the direction of the break out if it has congested for weeks previously. For today, pivot support for the spot month contract is located around 1,651 while resistance is pegged at 1,670 level.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 1676
R1= 1670
S1= 1651
S2= 1639

FCPO- Bulls Are Still Controlling The tempo. 

Palm oil futures is still good to go up higher this week judging from yesterday slightly Bullish fundamental data. Even though export figures was negative, it is relieve to see production and stocks level decline gradually. If there was an increment in the stocks level, yesterday price action would become entirely different. Palm oil outlook would become all negative again if there was any significant bad news as traders are more prone to re-act to Bearish news as palm oil long term price outlook is still pending from turning to Bullish. Technically, the benchmark May is still hovering on short term Bullish momentum judging on the higher lows and higher highs candle pattern formed on 15 minutes chart. But on medium term, market is still hesitating to turn from Bearish mode to Bullish as there was no significant Bullish candle formation formed on hourly chart. We might be looking at first recovery or rally attempt on hourly chart that went up above 2,443 level last Friday. All we need now is a retracement or a rally above 2,470, so that the benchmark May could create the first pair of higher high and higher low, thus turning the medium term outlook to Bullish. For today, short term market direction would be sideways ranging from 2,466~2,415. The same goes with pivot support for May contract is located around 2,415 while resistance is pegged at 2,466.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2483
R1= 2466
S1= 2432
S2= 2415

 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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