Thursday, February 7, 2013

FKLI Heading Into Pitfall 7th Feb 2013

Thursday, 7th Feb 2013. Index futures heading for a new four months low as election fear draws near. Other news to follow.

"- U.S. stocks eked out modest gains Wednesday after earnings from Time Warner Inc., Wyndham Worldwide Corp. and others reinforced a theme of steady improvement for consumer companies. The Nasdaq Composite ended lower.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +0.05% ended a choppy trading day up 7.22 points, or 0.1%, at 13,986.52. It had fallen as much as 66 points during the session. The S&P 500 Index SPX +0.05% ended up 0.83 point, or 0.1%, at 1,512.12. Sectors attractive to investors for defensive qualities such as dividends — telecoms and utilities — led the index, followed by consumer discretionary stocks. The benchmark indexes spent part of the session lower, and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP -0.10% ended down 3.1 points, or 0.1%, at 3,168.48."
"- Japanese stocks soared Wednesday to end at their highest level in more than four years as the yen skidded amid hopes the country’s central bank may adopt aggressive easing measures following Gov. Masaaki Shirakawa’s planned early departure. Most other regional markets ended with modest gains in the wake of upbeat economic data from the U.S. and Europe a day earlier. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average JP:100000018 -0.71%  jumped 3.8%, the most since March last year, to finish the day at 11,463.75, a level it hasn’t seen since September 2008. The performance outside Japan was more modest, with Australia’s S&P/ASX 200AU:XJO +0.17%  gaining 0.8%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI +0.01%  climbing 0.5%, Taiwan’s Taiex rising 0.3% and China’s Shanghai Composite Index CN:000001 -0.16%adding 0.1%."

"-Oil futures finished nearly unchanged Wednesday after a U.S. government report showed that crude supplies rose a bit less than expected, and distillate stockpiles fell for a second week.
Crude-oil futures for delivery in March CLH3 +0.19% settled at $96.62 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 2 cents. Prices were trading much lower, around $95.70, before Wednesday morning’s supply data."
"-March Soybeans finished down 5 at 1490 1/2, 4 1/2 off the high and 13 1/2 up from the low. November Soybeans closed down 12 1/4 at 1336. This was 8 up from the low and 11 1/2 off the high.
March Soymeal closed down 1.4 at 437.1. This was 4.5 up from the low and 2.0 off the high. March Soybean Oil finished down 0.53 at 52.45, 0.54 off the high and 0.05 up from the low. March soybeans traded lower on the day and light profit taking was cited after markets failed to rebound overnight. The US Dollar was sharply higher which added resistance to commodity markets. Long vessel lineups in the ports of Brazil and dry weather in Argentina this week continue to keep underlying buying support in the market. The weather forecast for Argentina was mostly unchanged today with warm and dry conditions this week prompting some analysts to cut production while some hold out hope that the forecasted rainfall next week will help relieve crop stress. The market will key off the Argentina and Brazilian production estimates in this Friday's report. The market expects Argentina soybean production at just over 53 million tonnes vs. the current USDA estimate of 54 million tonnes. Brazilian estimates fall near 82.60 million tonnes vs. the current USDA forecast of 82.50 million tonnes."
FKLI- Heading For New Low Due As Structured Fund Pull The Plug

Malaysia stock index fell for the second time straight this week as local fund continue to liquidate most of their exposure prior to long holiday. Big institution might just two session left to do everything they can to manage risk before Bursa shut  down for additional two days on next Monday and Tuesday for 2013 Chinese new year celebration. On the external side, that is, the only reason behind yesterday Sell-off I can came up. On the Technical side, you can observe that market is still susceptible to have another correction as there is no promising recover above 1,640 level for the past one week. The market just merely testing that level and then fell down right after it approach 1,640 level. Judging from previous week lower high formed on the daily chart plus series of lower lows and lower highs on hourly chart, market has become weaker than before. Apart from that, today gap down happen on index futures signifies the Bearish momentum has strengthen and we are likely to see more selling pressure when the market attempt to recover. For today, pivot support for the spot month contract is located around 1,575 while resistance is pegged at 1,622 level.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 1644
R1= 1622
S1= 1587

FCPO- Moving Into Correction. 

Palm oil futures medium and short term Bullish momentum are likely come to pause as its rival products are beginning to made substantial correction. Apart from that, the benchmark April is likely weaken further after it test previous four months high / resistance level last Monday this week. The 2,600 level is just too impossible for the Bulls to overcome and they find it easier to just abandon the Buying activities and booked their profit prior to the long holiday next week. There are still many rooms for the market to correct from this point, but we are confidence the palm oil price will resume its preceding uptrend if the 2,600 level is overtaken, maybe towards the end of Feb. But if the correction would prolong for too long and breaching below certain important support level such as the 2,500 level follow by 2,333 level, it will completely jeopardize the positive outlook for the first quarter. For today, the benchmark Apr is likely open gap down due to weaker than expected Soy bean and Soy oil price due to aggressive profit taking and higher Dollar value yesterday. For today, pivot support for the benchmark Apr is located around 2,517 while resistance is pegged at 2,553.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2565
R1= 2553
S1= 2529
S2= 2517

 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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