Sunday, December 23, 2012

Santa Rally Above Expectation 24th Dec 2012

Monday, 24th Dec 2012. Santa rally is here to stay as the index futures rallied significantly for the last few weeks. Other news to follow.

"-U.S. stocks fell sharply on Friday, denting weekly gains, after a Republican proposal to avert the fiscal cliff did not find support, reducing hopes for a budget deal before 2012 ends. After falling as much as 189 points, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -0.91% shed 120.88 points, or 0.9%, at 13,190.84, a level that has it up 0.4% from the week-ago close. Tallying a 1.2% weekly gain, the S&P 500 Index SPX -0.94%  lost 13.54 points, or 0.9%, at 1,430.15, with consumer shares hardest hit among its 10 major sectors. The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP -0.96% retreated 29.38 points, or 1%, at 3,021, leaving it up 1.7% on the week."

"- Asian stock markets ended firmly lower Friday as early optimism for progress on the U.S. “fiscal cliff” was dented after Republican lawmakers canceled a vote on a tax-cut plan.

Losses were notable in the region’s largest markets, with Japan’s Nikkei Stock AverageJP:100000018 -0.99%  dropping 1% — after rising 1.3% at one point during the day. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI -0.68% gave up 0.7%, South Korea’s KospiKR:SEU -0.95%  and Taiwan’s Taiex XX:Y9999 -0.99%  dropped 1% each, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index AU:XJO -0.23%  lost 0.2%, and the Shanghai Composite IndexCN:000001 -0.69%  retreated 0.7%."
"-Crude-oil prices fell Friday, keying off concerns about the U.S. economy slipping into recession as a deadline to avert a package of tax increases and spending cuts approached without a budget deal from Washington. Crude for February delivery CLG3 -1.30%  fell $1.47, or 1.6%, to settle at $88.66 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil futures for the week, however, closed up 2.2%."

"-January Soybeans finished up 22 at 1430 3/4, 8 off the high and 22 1/4 up from the low. March Soybeans closed up 24 1/2 at 1429 1/4. This was 24 3/4 up from the low and 5 1/2 off the high.
January Soymeal closed up 6.1 at 433.8. This was 6.2 up from the low and 3.0 off the high. January Soybean Oil finished up 0.8 at 48.71, 0.29 off the high and 0.66 up from the low. March soybeans saw double digit gains on the day and nearly retraced all of Thursday's losses to finish out the week of trading. Speculative buying showed up after sharp declines the last two days as traders evened up positions ahead of the weekend and Christmas next week. China reported November import data overnight and total soybean imports were pegged at 4.16 million tonnes, down 27% on the year but January through November imports were at 52.5 million tonnes, up 11.4% on the year. The slowdown in soybean imports for China in the month of November and the cancelations this week are both seen as short term negatives but overall demand remains robust. South American weather looks mostly favorable over the next couple of weeks. Brazil will see showers across most growing regions but areas to the north may see drier conditions which the market will monitor closely. Basis on the river and in the Gulf of Mexico had a softer tone yesterday but were steady today as water levels on the Mississippi River increased and on good supply at export terminals. Interior basis levels had a firm tone to them as farmer sales shut off due to the slide in prices. The USDA made an announcement this morning stating that last week's 110,000 tonne soybean sale to an unknown destination was incorrect and that the tonnage was sold domestically."

FKLI- Approaching Previous All Time High

Index futures has been running on positive momentum right after it manage to survive the Sell-off down to 1,585 level three weeks ago. Both stock index and index futures did not look back and recover almost all their losses occur during the Sell-off. As it was the Bears strength have been complete minimized from these recovery. On last Friday close, the stock index went down about 11.75 points to 1,658.85, while index futures retrace about 8.50 points to 1,665 level. Although the index futures closed lower on previous Friday, it notches with another new weekly high. Technically, there was another higher low and higher high formed on after the index futures manage to breached above 1,658 level. With these bullish candle formation formed, market is still expected to recover further with some mild retracement along the way. Moreover, according to market cycle, most sectors in the stocks market are poised to rally due to active demand from masses who likely went shopping during these festive season. On the contrary, spot month index maybe retrace in the early week judging from previous Friday Bearish candle but there is yet any sign for this Bullish momentum to end yet. For today, pivot support for the Dec contract is located around 1,654 while resistance is pegged at 1,72.50.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 1680
R1= 1672.5
S1= 1659.5
S2= 1654


FCPO- Surged On Soy Oil Recovery

Closing about three weeks high, the March contract settled higher than expected due to steady recovery on Soy oil on previous Friday. Fueled by Soy oil rally, the benchmark March went up about RM88 to 2,410, breaching previous three sessions high. The day high and low was traded within 2,410~2,326. Volume was traded higher to 16,266 lots. Bullish momentum suddenly revive after the palm oil futures retraced since Monday last week, all of the losses on previous week were erased in one session. In another words, Bulls are making a grand come back by ending the week with new weekly high. Technically, this particular Bullish Marubozu candle has created the first positive candle formation which is the higher low and higher high. The first higher low candle was created when The benchmark March gap up above previous Thursday candle and then followed by higher high candle when it breached previous Monday high around 2,376 level. Marking the first break out after the benchmark March went up above 2,376, market is poised to continue it's short term rally this week. Market participants are also expecting palm oil shipment to improve significantly early Jan 2013, or after the new palm oil export tax scheme is implement. For today, pivot support for March contract is located 2,353 while resistance is pegged at 2,465 level.

Daily Pivot Point
R2= 2465
R1= 2437
S1= 2353
S2= 2297
 Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

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